Author: Vedant Saigal, Assistant General Manager, IAGI, O.P. Jindal Global University

Keywords: Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft Program, F-35 Fighter Jet, Atmanirbharta, Indo-US Defence Relations, Stealth Gap.

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Keywords: Pahalgam Terror Attack, The Resistance Front (TRF), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), India-Pakistan, Gen Asim Munir, Kashmir, Indus Waters Treaty, Terrorism, Pulwama Terror Attack

The heinous terror attack on April 22 targeting the tourists in Pahalgam claimed by Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (Let) proxy, The Resistance Front (TRF), and later disowned, has been condemned globally and has escalated the existing tensions between India and Pakistan. India has responded with stern diplomatic measures, including the announcement to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. The treaty, signed in 1960, stood the test of the India-Pakistan crises (till now) and remained in place even after three wars and continued Pakistan-sponsored attacks on Indian territory. Pakistan’s reactions to India’s decisions have been a mix of acute anxiety and frustration, as expected.

The policymakers and leadership in Pakistan have termed the attack a homegrown terror  act, a false-flag operation aimed at maligning Pakistan. Islamabad stated that it “vehemently rejects the Indian announcement to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance” and any disruption of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty will be considered as “an act of war”. Pakistan’s Senate passed a resolution on April 25, asserting Pakistan’s capability to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The resolution states that any provocation by India will be met by a “firm, swift, and decisive” response by Pakistan. Senator Sherry Rehman, a senior leader from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), accused India of weaponising water and raised the issue of both nations possessing nuclear weapons. Large-scale violations have also taken place along the Line of Control (LoC) after the attack.

The two countries have had a complete absence of diplomatic dialogue since 2016, post the Pathankot terror attack, which derailed the Modi government’s affable overtures towards Pakistan. The relationship further deteriorated after the abrogation of Article 370, India’s military response to Pakistan’s acts of terror and New Delhi’s firm position that terror and talks cannot go together.

The long-practised strategy of covert war through terrorism has traditionally provided Pakistan the space to hold a position of denial and shift the blame on India. Pakistan’s tenacious relationship with terrorism has been well acknowledged, and its current security challenges are a blowback to the policies it has pursued in Kabul. Although Islamabad conveniently blames geopolitical developments and its alliance with Washington for embracing terrorism, the fact remains that Pakistan opted for sub-conventional war since its inception in 1947 when it launched the first war for Kashmir under the label of ‘tribal revolt’.   The covert war option for Pakistan evolved over the decades, and Islamabad has subsequently tried to compensate for its internal weaknesses through terrorism vis-à-vis India. It started developing nuclear weapons after the humiliating defeat in the 1971 war and adopted an irrational posture with an unwritten but repeatedly proclaimed ‘first use nuclear doctrine’ after it acquired the nuclear bomb in 1987. Nuclear weapons have been a shield under which Pakistan felt it could conduct terrorism without fear of Indian retaliation.

In recent years, Pakistan has been facing multi-dimensional crises marked by a prolonged phase of political instability, mounting debt figures, acute polarisation within the country, the military’s efforts to tighten its grip over the democratic institutions, its economy, and an alarming security situation with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) launching relentless terror attacks targeting the security personnel. Although the crises are not new to Pakistan, two factors have changed in this period.  First is Pakistan’s declining strategic relevance, which it cherished for decades, given its strategic location and recurrent engagement as a prime US ally.  The US exit from Afghanistan in 2021, Washington’s focus on the Indo-Pacific strategy and Pakistan’s continued instability did reduce its strategic utility for the West. Second, the Pakistan military’s image has been severely dented due to a multitude of reasons – Imran Khan’s overt anti-military campaign, which garnered vast support, the inability of the Pakistan army to counter TTP’s attacks, and its inability to contain Baloch resentment and counter Pashtun nationalism, who have been, for years, despairingly shouting the slogan “Ye jo dehshat gardi hai, iske piche vardi hai”.

To contain the growing opposition and potential moves challenging its dominance, the military has taken measures to further alter the power dynamics in its favour and gain a tighter grip within the country. In the last two years, a series of Constitutional Amendment Acts have facilitated the Army’s unquestionable control over the state institutions, including the judiciary, which has been assertive in the past. The 26th Constitutional Amendment, passed last year, introduced radical changes in the structure and functioning of the judiciary.

Recently, Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir’s chest-thumping speech to a group of overseas Pakistanis indicated his growing frustration and efforts to revive declining relevance and respect. The script of the speech was clichéd, and it was from a new actor, General Asim Munir, who has been little known for his verbal expressions (until now). Munir talked about the two-nation theory, asserted that Hindus and Muslims are different, threatened action in Kashmir, and also challenged the growing Baloch resentment, which Pakistan has perpetually blamed on India. He reiterated the two-nation theory while addressing the Pakistan Military Academy parade in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. It is critical to remember that Munir was serving as the head of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) when the Pulwama attack took place in 2019.

The Pahalgam attack is a desperate attempt by the Pakistan military to revive its strategic relevance, resuscitate its reverence within the country, challenge the normalcy in Kashmir, internationalise the Kashmir issue and instigate communal violence in India. Pakistan’s reactions post-attack reflect its deep anxiety and, in the coming days, it is expected to once again heavily rely on the following: 1) use the nuclear threat repeatedly, 2) projection of a low nuclear threshold, 3) express deep concerns about regional instability, 4) seek Chinese assistance diplomatically and militarily to counter India. But will these deter the Modi government from responding to Pakistan’s continued acts of terror? The answer is probably a resounding “no”.

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(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Centre for Air Power Studies [CAPS])

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Keywords: Kosmos, ASAT, Mysterious Object from Satellite, LEO

On 2 February, 2025 Russia launched three satellites, Kosmos 2581, 2582 and 2583, into an orbit of some 364 miles (585 kilometres) above Earth’s surface, on a Soyuz-2.1V rocket launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.  These are satellites belonging to the Kosmos series, a long-established series of scientific and military missions, which have been acting strangely since they were launched.  Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell observed they appeared to have conducted proximity operations, moving near other celestial objects, in March.  On March 18, the U.S. Space Force announced the discovery of a new object in orbit, which it believes was launched by either Kosmos 2581 or 2583, but Russia has not communicated about the issue.[1] Russia has provided no details on the nature of the satellites or the purpose of the released object.

Traditionally, the Kosmos designation has been used for Secret missions, such as of reconnaissance, electronic intelligence, or experimental technology missions, especially anti-satellite (ASAT) devices.  The lack of official communication from Moscow has sparked extensive conjecture on what this mysterious item is and what its ramifications might be, given the fact that it has been undisclosed mission.

Event Details

The trio of satellites, Kosmos 2581, 2582 and 2583, was placed in what is structurally referred to as a near-polar orbit, which is a great way to attempt to view the majority of Earth’s surface at once.  They are at an altitude of 364 miles, in low Earth orbit (LEO), where many spacecrafts cohabit in a congested space.[2]

Behaviour: Proximity operations indicate proficiency in precise manoeuvring, presumably for the sake of inspection, interaction, or surveillance of another spacecraft.  There is an additional degree of mystery that has been added by the release of an object on March 18th, as this might be an indication of the deployment of a payload or an unanticipated event such as fragmentation.

The United States Space Force has been able to monitor the new object, but the nature of the item, whether it was a planned deployment or debris, has not been confirmed or established.  Evidently, this is not a fragmentation event, which usually results in numerous fragments, but rather a single entity that is leaning towards deliberate release.

Possible Nature of the Mystery Object

Based on history of Russia’s space programme and current geopolitical context, several hypotheses have emerged regarding the mysterious object.

Military Experiment: It could be a test of satellite inspection technology for Russia to monitor or interfere with foreign assets. Kosmos 2499 in 2014 was a past Kosmos mission that had similar manoeuvring, which fed speculation of ASAT capabilities. It could also be a target for practise, improving Russia’s ability to track and neutralise objects in orbit.[3]

Technology Demonstration: It could be used in a docking or formation flying test to demonstrate Russia’s orbital rendezvous expertise, a requirement for satellite servicing or space station operations.

However, a scientific payload is less likely, given the secrecy, as Russia usually announces civilian research to beef up its space image.

Unintentional Fragmentation: Though unlikely, there is no way of ruling out unintentional fragmentation. But a single object indicates a controlled release rather than a breakup, which would break up into many fragments.

The most alarming possibility is a space-based weapon, for example a co-orbital ASAT system. This concern is heightened by Russia’s 2021 Nudol missile test, in which Kosmos 1408 was destroyed and debris created and its suspected nuclear ASAT ambitions reported in 2024.[4]

 Likely Implications

However, there are some scenarios that stand out in terms of the event’s implications, depending on the object’s purpose.

If we consider it to be a weapon or inspection tool, it indicates Russia’s desire to dominate LEO and undermine U.S. and NATO satellite networks that are indispensable for communication, navigation, and intelligence. It is in line with Russia’s pattern of flexing space capabilities during terrestrial tensions, such as the Ukraine conflict.

With the U.S. Space Force’s vigilance and the Pentagon’s prior labelling of Russian satellites as ‘counterspace weapons’ (e.g., Kosmos 2576 in May 2024), there is a growing space arms race that could lead to retaliatory deployments by other nations.

Even if benign, the object increases LEO congestion and adds to Orbital Safety Risks. Breaking one of these could cause damage to the International Space Station and threaten commercial satellites as has happened in the 2021 Kosmos 1408 debris cloud, adding additional debris to the already overwhelmed and dense space junk.[5]

Russia’s opacity fuels distrust, especially since it rejected 2024 UN resolution against space weapons; the U.S. and China are also developing their own (e.g. the X-37B of US, China’s spaceplane). Such secrecy could drive countries toward unilateralism over cooperation in the international space, especially when dealing with those potential military implications.

Advanced manoeuvring or deployment tech: A successful test of advanced manoeuvre or deployment tech could help offset the economic constraints after sanctions on Russia, giving its space programme a boost. It may also force competitors to speed up their programs, adding to the growing world space competition.

Analysis

Considering Russia’s history of Kosmos missions, from earlier ASAT tests to more recent inspector satellites like Kosmos 2542, which followed a US spy bird in 2020, this may be a dual use operation oriented towards technology, but indulged with a flavour of the military.[6] Placed against a backdrop of strained U.S.-Russia relations and NATO’s reliance on space assets in Ukraine, a strategic intent over pure science is the right timing. But the object’s role is speculative without concrete data. Without transparency, proximity operations don’t generate confidence but generate hostility—both the U.S. and China do this—in fact both employ almost the exact same procedure—but worst-case assumptions are made.

Since the object is small (implied by its singular detection) and the satellites are small (Soyuz-2.1V) launch capacity, large scale weapons such as nuclear platforms are ruled out in favour of a small payload or microsatellite. Russian knowledge of post-2021 international backlash makes it unlikely it is the debris-heavy explosive, and it’s likely a kinetic or electronic disruptor.

Conclusion

This is a demonstration that space is becoming an actual battlefield where ambiguity itself is a weapon against an adversary — causing them to be unsettled without any shot being fired. Its implications are likely heightened competition and risk in orbit, and it likely was a military experiment or tech demo. A symbol of the opaque, contested frontier above us, the mystery object will stay that way until Russia clarifies its intent, or the data acquired that tracks the object dictates otherwise. It should be monitored by U.S. and allies, and we should hopefully have some cyber or diplomatic responses if it becomes threatening.

India can learn from Russia’s Kosmos space episode that space warfare is a function of Technological R&D. Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan highlighting the significance of the Space operations in a Space Symposium, said “Space is going to form the basic building blocks of warfare in future, it is going to have an impact on all these three domains, Hence, it is important to develop space capabilities”. Building SSA, counter space tool and resilient systems while exploiting ambiguity and alliances will help place India to deter threat in the Space domain.

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Notes

[1] Ciaran McGrath, “Russia’s super secretive spacecrafts release mystery object into orbit over Earth”, The Express, April 3, 2025, https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/2036486/russia-space-satellite-mystery-object-ufo. Accessed on April 4, 2025.

[2] Andrew Jones, “Secretive Russian military satellites release mystery object into orbit”,  Space.com, April 3, 2025, https://www.space.com/space-exploration/satellites/secretive-russian-military-satellites-release-mystery-object-into-orbit. Accessed on April 4, 2025.

[3] Mike Wall, “Mysterious Russian satellite breaks up in orbit, generating cloud of debris”, Space.com, February 8, 2023, https://www.space.com/russian-satellite-kosmos-2499-breakup-earth-orbit. Accessed on April 5, 2025.

[4] Ankit Panda, “The Dangerous Fallout of Russia’s Anti-Satellite Missile”, Carnegiendowment, November 17, 2021Testhttps://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2021/11/the-dangerous-fallout-of-russias-anti-satellite-missile-test?lang=en. Accessed on April 5, 2025.

[5] T. Flohrer, R. Moissl, F. Schmitz, “Observation of COSMOS-1408 Debris Cloud with the Tracking and Imaging Radar (TIRA) System”, Conference Proceedings ESA, 2023, https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int /proceedings/neosst2/paper/38. Accessed on April 5, 2025.

[6] Jennifer Leman, “Why Is This Russian Satellite Stalking a U.S. Spy Satellite in Orbit?”, Popular Machines, February 05, 2020, https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/satellites/a30767105/russian-satellite-stalking-us-spy-satellite/. Accessed on April 5, 2025. [Source: https://www.isro.gov.in/GSLV_F14_INSAT_3DS_gallery.html. Accessed on April 5, 2025]

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Author: Air Commodore SP Singh, VSM (Retd), Senior Visiting Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies

Keywords: Indian Air Force, Light Combat Aircraft ( LCA) , Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Fighter Aircraft Production

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