Keywords: TAPI, Energy, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India

Three recent developments in India’s neighbourhood at the start of the new year have again brought the spotlight on the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India pipeline (TAPI). First, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy has confirmed that Astana is exploring the possibility of joining the TAPI project. The ministry cited the ongoing negotiations between the national gas company, QazaqGaz, and Turkmengaz.[1] Second, on January 04, 2025, a meeting was held between Hidayatullah Badri (Acting Minister of Mining and Oil of Afghanistan) and Muhammad Amanov (Director General of TAPI Pipeline Company Limited) in Kabul. One of the key areas of negotiations was the construction of the TAPI gas pipeline. The construction of the Serhetabat-Herat section of the project in Afghanistan, which started in September 2024, was an important milestone in TAPI’s implementation.[2] Third, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on January 08, 2025. Their discussions encompassed a variety of subjects, such as security concerns in Afghanistan, the need for India to engage in developmental projects, providing humanitarian assistance, and Afghanistan’s use of Chabahar port in Iran to facilitate commerce.[3] In all three instances, the progress on the TAPI gas pipeline signifies a potential shift in Afghanistan’s role as a transit hub for regional energy trade. India’s engagement with Afghanistan indicates the former’s strategic interest in maintaining regional stability and connectivity.

TAPI: Impediments in its Realisation

The TAPI is a gas pipeline project extending 1,814 km and, is designed to transport 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from the Galkynysh field (Turkmenistan). The pipeline route includes 214 km in Turkmenistan, 774 km in Afghanistan, crossing Herat and Kandahar, 826 in Pakistan, crossing Quetta and Multan, and concluding in Fazilka, India. Many experts have advocated the pipeline project by highlighting its environmental advantages and economic benefits derived from energy commerce and fees. For India, TAPI’s importance can be observed through the following reasons: First, as India’s economy needs all forms of energy, the international partnership is necessary for India’s needs. Second, given natural gas’s lesser carbon footprint, the gas supply from the TAPI project will assist the Indian economy in growing in a lower carbon-intensive manner. Third, it will help in regional integration and have a multiplier effect.[4]

• • Souring Afghanistan and Pakistan relations: In light of the deteriorating bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan since 2021, there has been a shadow over the feasibility and security of the TAPI project. Pakistan expresses concerns over potential Taliban dominance over energy resources, which could be leveraged for political advantage. Additionally, the activities of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have exacerbated Pakistan’s worries. Pakistan’s airstrikes inside Afghanistan targeting TTP hideouts and firing exchanges between the Taliban and Pakistani military posts along the Afghan border have created tension between both countries.[5]

  • India-Pakistan Ties: Given the historical tensions between India and Pakistan, the former has geopolitical, security and political concerns concerning the TAPI project. The Pakistan factor in the project remains a concern for India due to the former’s ability to disrupt gas supplies in the event of disagreement. This uncertainty continues to prevent India from active participation. The security of midstream infrastructure in Afghanistan and Pakistan also remains a concerning issue for India. For instance, in Pakistan, the pipeline route passes through Balochistan, a region known for its terrorist activities.[6]

  • Security concerns in Afghanistan: Post-2021, the Taliban ensured the safety of the project by purchasing land along the pipeline’s route[7] and reassured Turkmenistan of their commitment to protect the pipeline.[8] However, despite these assurances, security concerns remain. Ongoing threats from terrorist organisations, economic volatility, and political instability persistently undermine the project’s prospects.

  • Problem with Taliban’s International Recognition: Several countries have linked their recognition of the Taliban to the establishment of an inclusive government, the safeguarding of women’s rights, and the cutting-off of connections with extremist organisations. The non-recognition of the Taliban will create hurdles in various fields of engagement, such as trade and investments, and exclusion from international organisations. In the context of trade and commerce, it will lead to significant challenges in obtaining trade agreements and gaining access to international financial institutions. On similar lines, exclusion from international organisations will prevent them from engaging in cooperation and negotiation platforms.

India’s Sophie’s Choice

India has shown moderate interest in the gas pipeline project primarily due to ongoing security challenges in Afghanistan and its unfriendly relations with Pakistan. These issues have remained unresolved since the project’s beginning. In this regard, India has two potential courses of action regarding the TAPI project and should maintain flexibility concerning both.

• • Adopting a Multi-Stakeholder Approach towards TAPI: As India’s worries concerning TAPI primarily emerge from security issues and political instability in the Af-Pak region, bringing more stakeholders like new member countries, energy firms, or international organisations into the project could help mitigate these concerns. For example, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) pipeline, supported by the European Union (EU), has involved many countries and organisations.

  • Leveraging the INSTC’s Energy Potential: If the TAPI project encounters significant obstacles, India needs to seriously consider leveraging the energy potential of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Because the corridor uses a combination of seaports, railways, and roadways, its potential for oil and gas transportation must be explored amidst continuing ambiguity on TAPI. The membership of INSTC might be helpful for mobilising financial and technical resources required for expansion and mitigating any security threats emanating from regions along the INSTC, unlike TAPI’s.

In conclusion, despite considerable scholarly and popular discussion over the TAPI pipeline in recent years, a sense of fatigue and scepticism about TAPI’s realisation is evident. However, as long as India is a party to the TAPI project, assessments and discussions over the project should continue to find the best option for the country’s energy security.

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Notes

*An extremely difficult choice between two or more things one considers to be equally valuable, important, or essential.

[1] “Afghanistan Advances TAPI Gas Pipeline Construction as Kazakhstan Explores Participation,” The Times of Central Asia, January 30, 2025, https://timesca.com/afghanistan-advances-tapi-gas-pipeline-construction-as-kazakhstan-explores-participation/.  Accessed on February 05, 2025.

[2] Arman Young, “Kabul and Ashgabat accelerate the implementation of strategic projects,” Caspian Herald, January 09, 2025, https://casp-geo.ru/afganistan-i-turkmenistan-uskoryayut-realizatsiyu-strategicheskih-proektov/.  Accessed on January 12, 2025.

[3] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Foreign Secretary’s meeting with the Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan,” January 08, 2025, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/38898/Foreign+Secretarys+meeting+with+the+Acting+Foreign+Minister+of+Afghanistan.  Accessed on January 12, 2025.

[4] “Statement by Ambassador Syed Akbaruddin, Permanent Representative at the side-event on Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – India (TAPI) gas pipeline: a new energy great Silk Road to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all on July 18, 2018,” Permanent Mission of India to the UN, July 18, 2018, https://www.pminewyork.gov.in/others?id=MzY4MQ.  Accessed on Accessed on February 05, 2025.

[5] Syed Fazl-e-Haider, “Turkmenistan Resumes Work on TAPI Pipeline Despite Geopolitical Hurdles,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, September 19, 2024, https://jamestown.org/program/turkmenistan-resumes-work-on-tapi-pipeline-despite-geopolitical-hurdles/  Accessed on January 12, 2025.

[6] “India’s doubts over TAPI Pipeline persist amid security and geopolitical concerns,” bne IntelliNews, January 24, 2025, https://www.intellinews.com/india-s-doubts-over-tapi-pipeline-persist-amid-security-and-geopolitical-concerns-363252/?source=afghanistan. Accessed on January 25, 2025.

[7] Samir Muradov, “Afghanistan admitted to the implementation of the TAPI project,” News.Az, September 12, 2024, https://news.az/news/-afghanistan-admitted-to-the-implementation-of-the-tapi-project. Accessed on January 12, 2025.

[8] “Taliban vows to guarantee safety of trans-Afghanistan gas pipeline,” Eurasianet, February 06, 2021, https://eurasianet.org/taliban-vows-to-guarantee-safety-of-trans-afghanistan-gas-pipeline. Accessed on January 12, 2025.

The post Is TAPI Becoming a Sophie’s Choice* for India? appeared first on CAPSS India.

Author: Ms Bantirani Patro, Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies

Keywords: Moscow Format, Afghanistan, Russia, Taliban, Engagement

The post Sixth Moscow Format: Russia’s Growing Ties with the Taliban appeared first on CAPSS India.

Author: Wing Commander Akash Godbole, Research Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies

Keywords: Air Power, Indigenous Jet Engine, Kaveri, Tejas, Indian Air Force

The post Indigenous Jet-Engine Development – India at Crossroads appeared first on CAPSS India.

Keywords: Aero India, Make in India, Atmnirbharta

The 15th Edition of Aero India 2025, Asia’s largest biennial air show and aviation exhibition in Asia, will be organised from February 10 to 14 at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in the IT city – Bengaluru. The AF Station successfully managed every Aero India edition since 1996. Aero India 2025 will showcase a significant aerospace defence trade exhibition while the Indian Air Force (IAF) and other participants will perform aerial displays. SU-57Es and F-35s will be attractive for all.[1]

Plethora of Academic Handshakes

The event will see Global stakeholders, academic representatives, and the think tank community interacting and brainstorming with practitioners and aerospace company personnel for product developments. Members from worldwide aerospace companies will participate in this event. People get an opportunity at Aero India to exchange knowledge about aviation industry improvements, industrial capabilities and current market developments. The event strengthens both the ‘Make in India’ initiative and domestic aviation industry development.[2]

The first three days of the five-day event will be designated as business days. It is organised by the Defence Exhibition Organisation, Department of Defence Production, Ministry of Defence. It will feature a significant trade exhibition of the aerospace and defence sector, as well as aerial displays by the IAF and other participants. Global aerospace companies in the industry will send representatives to this event.

Fostering Indian Aerospace Domain

Aero India delivers unique possibilities for people to share information about aviation sector advancements, industry concepts, and recent industry developments. The event will enhance both the ‘Make in India’ programme and the development of the domestic aviation industry. The indigenous defence manufacturing, as an outcome of the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ mission of the government, will be exhibited. Self-reliance endeavours in the defence sector will result in a reduction in dependence on international imports. Various start-ups, Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSME) and Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSU) will actively display their capabilities at the event as the country proves its advancement in developing state-of-the-art military equipment.

The event establishes a platform to display India’s defence capabilities and supports globalisation efforts while advancing local defence production. Aero India 2025 will serve as a platform to achieve multiple strategic goals to strengthen India’s military readiness against any threat. Aero India serves as an exceptional chance for India to demonstrate its domestic defence abilities while drawing sector foreign investment and building needed defence relationships.

The current geopolitical framework in the region demands that India strengthen its defensive capabilities. A comprehensive national security plan needs to be enunciated as China remains aggressive in the Indo-Pacific and Pakistan continues to face economic instability and political unrest.  In addition, China is inducting state-of-the-art aerial platforms like the sixth generation J-36, J-20, warships, and UAS.[3] The modernisation of the IAF is the primary purpose behind Aero India. Operational superiority demands from the IAF require next-level fighter aircraft, helicopters and UAVs. Aero India functions as a display platform for possible acquisitions and technologies that defence companies use to negotiate deals during events. Next-generation fighter aircraft evaluation, air-to-air refuelling, and cyber warfare systems assessments constitute this group of tasks. Indigenous defence system development will speed up from this event, reducing foreign dependency and enhancing national self-sufficiency in defence.

It is natural for indigenous development, corresponding with the ‘Make in India’ initiative, to promote domestic manufacturing and innovation. The event depends on major technological partners to succeed, and the formation of sustainable business agreements that strengthen India’s defence manufacturing capabilities.

Technological advancements are just a part of Aero India. In actuality, the event can help build strategic partnerships. The event is a forum for advanced discussions and negotiations with potential defence partners. It means increasing ties with nations like the US, Russia and France, as well as with other countries with similar security interests. They could involve technology transfer, collaborative research and development or co-production of defence systems. Increasingly close collaboration between the IAF and the US in the area of advanced fighter and UAV technology will significantly improve the capabilities of the IAF. It would enhance India’s defence preparedness by improving intelligence gathering and surveillance technology with Israel, along with collaborating with Israel on the matter.

The strategic partnerships between countries will become stronger through the advancements of Aero India 2025. Through its platform, the event allows high-level talks and partnership negotiations with potential defence partners. The event provides opportunities to enhance current defence relations with the United States, France, Russia and Israel, and establish new alliances among nations that share security priorities. Strategic alliances between countries include exchanges of technology together with common research programmes and joint defence system production activities. When the IAF works closely with the United States to develop advanced fighter technology and UAV systems, it will achieve major capability growth. Establishing stronger connections between India and Israel for surveillance capabilities and intelligence-sharing capacities will enhance overall national defence readiness.

Diplomatic initiatives will be essential for turning opportunities into benefits through the 2025 edition of Aero India. Through its air show programme, India establishes diplomatic dialogue with other nations, facilitating mutual understanding and building trust among nations. Multiple defence authorities from different countries participate in events that trigger mutual dialogues about local security threats and cooperative ventures. India demonstrates its defence capabilities at the showcase to let adversaries understand its dedication to protecting its national interests. The defensive presence enables regional stability through its ability to prevent aggressive behaviour while building a secure balance in the security sector.

Impetus must be given to convert available opportunities into benefits through diplomatic initiatives. Relevant measures must be initiated to provide a conducive environment for all stakeholders to operate smoothly.  Indian government officials must be forthcoming to convert brainstorming sessions into an opportunity to strengthen the Indian defence ecosystem. India estimates that the diplomatic dialogue with other nations through its air show programme will foster understanding as well as trust between nations. Representatives of defence bodies from several countries participate in event, which drive bilateral discussions of regional security challenges and potentially collaborative efforts for capability development.

For Aero India 2025 to succeed in delivering on its strategic objectives, a number of key enablers must be realised. The main goal is to earn significant international participation. We must do this primarily and, in particular, must make efforts to promote this event and highlight its benefits to participant nations.’ The logistics systems of large-scale events must to be controlled for successful delivery. This event forces us to ensure that the participants are fully protected. Deals made at events have to be enforced to accomplish the objectives.

Conclusion

Aero India 2025 provides a unique opportunity for India to enhance defence capabilities by working on challenge sets across the Eastern and Western defence sectors. Technological evolution and innovation, presented through international commercial partnerships and diplomatic initiatives at the event, will further help India to be Atmanirbhar on the path to superior operational preparedness, strengthening national security in the context of a complex and evolving geopolitical environment. The dividends of this event depend on the professional and meticulous execution coupled with the capitalisation of the huge potential of Indian defence capability creation.

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Notes

[1] D Peri, “Russian, U.S. fifth generation fighter jets at Aero India,” The Hindu, January 29, 2025,   https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/russian-us-fifth-generation-fighter-jets-at-aero-india/article69152033.ece. Accessed on February 6, 2025.

[2] Department of Defence Production, “Why Visit Aero India 2025?,”  https://www.aeroindia.gov.in/whyvisit. Accessed on February 3, 2025.

[3] Anil Chopra, “USAF vs PLAAF: U.S. “Downplays” China’s Air Combat Capability; Can 6th-Gen “J-36” Change the Game?,” The Eurasian Times, December 28, 2024, https://www.eurasiantimes.com/pentagon-downplays-chinas-plaaf-combat/. Accessed on January 31, 2025.

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Keywords: Doomsday Clock, Nuclear Risks, Nihon Hidankyo, Nobel Peace Prize

On January 28, 2025, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced the new time for the Doomsday Clock. It set the time at 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to this hour. According to the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin— whose primary task is to decide the time on the Clock— dangerously negative trends continued on all the four issues considered in the time setting process. These include nuclear weapons, climate change, potential misuse of biological science and disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence. Given this, the statement released on the occasion read, “In 2024, humanity edged ever closer to catastrophe.” The time was moved from 90 seconds to 89 seconds, bringing it closer to midnight.

One second may be a small change. But it is a hugely significant move underscoring the gravity of the situation. Given that the world was already precariously placed so close to midnight over the last two years, even the slightest move further is a step closer to the edge of the precipice. It is a warning and an urgent call for action. Since the Clock takes man-made threats that can become existential risks for humanity into account, it also holds out hope that humankind can take steps to mitigate them.

While negative trend lines mark each of the four dimensions that determine the time on the Clock, the nuclear landscape is particularly concerning at the moment. All of the major nuclear-armed states are engaged in modernising and expanding their nuclear arsenals and capabilities. Each claims the need to do so to ostensibly ‘restore stability’ that has been disturbed by the other’s actions. Without meaningful dialogues addressing their threat perceptions, an arms race is unfolding before our eyes. Meanwhile, nuclear brinkmanship has become fashionable and acceptable as normal behaviour. Therefore, doctrines that lower thresholds of use of nuclear weapons, postures that flaunt dual-use capabilities, and strategies that are built around the idea of limited nuclear use no longer raise eyebrows.

Arms control is on the verge of becoming a vestige of the past as no negotiations are underway to extend the last existing bilateral arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. The New START treaty will expire in 2026 as an unsung hero since both sides have suspended compliance with the treaty against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The period has also been marked by an increase in the salience of nuclear weapons as non-nuclear weapon states contemplate the relevance of nuclear weapons for national security. Any actions of President Trump that sow disquiet amongst US allies would have further implications. Meanwhile, long-standing concerns over the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programmes persist.

It is to draw attention to this state of nuclear affairs and to prompt leaders to take responsible steps away from such risks that the time on the Doomsday Clock was changed. As a graphic representation of the times we live in, it exhorts political, military, technology, and business leaders to recognise the serious issues with the seriousness and maturity they deserve.

A similar message for action was sent out on December 10, 2024, when the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Nihon Hidankyo — a group of organisations representing survivors of the August 1945 nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The award honoured the hibakusha who have spent their lives recounting their experience of the atomic bombings and its lasting impact. Usually, for a wound to heal, doctors advise not scratching off the scabs.  But the hibakusha have spent their lives keeping their wounds fresh to ensure that the horror of nuclear weapons could be made known to others. The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Nihon Hidankyo was a recognition of their efforts and a wake-up call to humanity that nuclear dangers are grave and growing.

President Trump’s mention of the need for denuclearisation because nuclear weapons are expensive and dangerous during his address to the Davos Summit showed a slim sliver of hope. It evoked a somewhat encouraging response from the Russian President, who echoed his own desire to do everything possible to avert a third world war. But even before one could view these statements with cautious optimism, Trump’s executive order, which focuses on building a next-generation missile defence system, can only fuel the ongoing offence defence spiral and arms racing.

Given that the US is traditionally the trendsetter on the nuclear fashion street, it is hoped that President Trump will show maturity and a desire for a legacy that could emerge from a bold leadership. As the Doomsday Clock and the Nobel Peace Prize have signalled, that is the crying need of the hour. Will he and leaders of the other major nuclear weapon states dare to look at the mirrors held up to them?

This 80th year of the anniversary of the atomic bombings could best be marked by a new, high-level initiative that single-mindedly seeks to reduce the risks that currently have us teetering at the brink.

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The author is Member Science and Security Board, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, and Senior Research Advisor, Asia Pacific Leadership Network

(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Centre for Air Power Studies [CAPS])

The post Time to Address the Grim State of Nuclear Affairs appeared first on CAPSS India.

Keywords: Aero India 2025, Aerobatic Displays, Atmanirbharta, Air Show

Asia’s Largest Air Show

Aero India, Asia’s largest air show, is held biennially in Bengaluru, Silicon City, and India’s aviation hub. The 15^th edition of Aero India will be held at the Air Force Station, Yelahanka, from February 10 to 14, 2025. As has been the practice, the first three days of the air show (February 10, 11 & 12) would be reserved for the industry as business days, and the next two days (February 13 & 14) would be open for the public to attend. The broad theme for the air show this year would be the same as its last edition, ‘The Runway to a Billion Opportunities’. This would provide major opportunities for Indian original equipment manufacturers (OEM) to forge collaborations with foreign OEMs and become significant players in the global value chain, thereby enhancing the indigenous aviation ecosystem. The air show would also highlight India’s growing indigenous aviation platforms, cutting-edge technologies, and defence innovations, and promote start-ups and display thrilling aerobatic displays.

Focus on Indigenisation

Aero India (the air show and aerospace exhibition) is planned, organised and managed by the Defense Exhibition Organisation (DEO), Department of Defence Production, Ministry of Defense. The Indian Air Force (IAF), Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Ministry of Civil Aviation (MOCA) and Department of Space provide the requisite support for the conduct of the air show. Over the years, Aero India has slowly but surely managed to capture the eye and the attention of the world’s military and civil aircraft manufacturers by showcasing cutting-edge technologies by foreign and indigenous aviation OEMs, thought-provoking academic seminars, business collaborations, and spectacular aerial displays. Since 2015, Aero India’s main focus has been on ‘Make in India’ and ‘Atmanirbharta’, which essentially translates to building an indigenous aviation industry and its associated ecosystem and achieving self-reliance.

Aero India’s Global Standing

Since its humble beginnings in 1996, Aero India has gradually grown in significance as an air show, in Asia and worldwide. Some of the most well-known, prestigious and influential air shows of the world are the Farnborough Air Show (established 1948), the Paris Air Show (established 1909), the Royal International Air Tattoo — the biggest military air show — in England, the ILA Berlin Air Show (established 1909), the Dubai Air Show (established 1989), the Zhuhai Air Show (China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition), and the Singapore Air Show (established 2008). Though Aero India has some catching up to do with these renowned and established air shows, it has grown in importance and carved out a niche position on the global air show calendar. Over the years, Aero India has grown in size and significance and has become Asia’s largest air show and aerospace exhibition. One interesting trivia is that the inaugural edition of both Zhuhai Air Show and Aero India was held in 1996. The highlights of the last edition of Aero India in 2023 were that it attracted over seven lakh visitors, high-level dignitaries from 98 countries, and a total of 809 exhibitors, including businesses, investors, start-ups, and MSMEs had put up their stalls in the air show. During the air show, more than 250 plus partnerships/MoUs were signed with technology transfers worth over INR 75,000 crore. The maiden iDEX Investor Hub (iIH) also saw INR 200 crores being pledged^[1].

Schedule of Activities

Building on its past successes, Aero India 2025 would aim to focus on showcasing indigenous aviation platforms, highlighting India’s progress in aerospace and defence technologies and fostering global partnerships. Aero India 2025 would have several significant activities, including a curtain raiser event, the Defence Ministers’ Conclave, the CEOs’ Round Table, the iDEX start-up event, spectacular air shows, and a large exhibition area comprising of the ‘India Pavilion’ and numerous aerospace companies^[2].

As a prelude to Aero India 2025, DRDO, in association with the Aeronautical Society of India, will be organising the 15th Aero India International Seminar at Bengaluru on February 8 to 9, 2025, which would help in fostering the exchange of innovative ideas, driving technological advancements and enabling inter-sector collaborations. The theme for the seminar this year will be “Futuristic Aerospace Technologies: Challenges in Design Validation.”  The discussions on the first day would be focussed on ‘Emerging Trends in Futuristic Aerospace Technologies’, and on the second day, the focus would be on ‘Military Airworthiness and Certification: Challenges in Design and Testing’.^[3] Both topics of discussion are highly pertinent for the fledgling Indian aviation industry and would provide a platform for exploring collaborative research opportunities and forging strategic partnerships for developing futuristic aerospace technologies.

One of the major highlights of Aero India 2025 would be the Defence Ministers’ Conclave on the theme ‘BRIDGE – Building Resilience through International Defence and Global Engagement’. The conclave would aim to build strategic partnerships and enhance defence cooperation with friendly foreign countries (FFCs) with a shared vision of international security and development. Bilateral meetings of the Raksha Mantri, Raksha Rajya Mantri, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Chief of the Air Staff (CAS) and Defence Secretary would also be planned on the sidelines of the event. The meetings would focus on bolstering the defence and aerospace ties with the FFCs.

Another major attraction of Aero India 2025 would be the CEOs’ Round Table, which would provide the global OEMs and Indian defence and aerospace industry (public as well as private) leaders a platform for forging partnerships for technology transfers, joint designing, development, and manufacturing in India and exporting to the world.

Another key highlight of Aero India 2025 would be the India Pavilion, which would showcase India’s commitment to its ‘Make-in-India’ and ‘Atmanirbharta’ initiatives by showcasing our indigenously developed aviation platforms and cutting-edge technologies. There would also be a dedicated focus on the rapidly expanding start-up ecosystem in the aerospace domain. This would be through the special iDEX start-up event, featuring a diverse range of cutting-edge technologies and products developed by Indian start-ups. Focused on innovation, the event would be able to bring fresh ideas and solutions to the aviation industry.

Another important feature of Aero India 2025 would be the large number of seminars on critical themes, fostering discussions on defence policy, innovation in aerospace technologies, and opportunities for international collaborations. Aero India 2025 is expected to provide networking opportunities to businesses, investors, and start-ups for forging new partnerships and exploring opportunities in India’s growing aerospace and defence industry.

Aerospace Platforms and State-of-the-Art Technologies

Aero-India 2025 is likely to have all the major global and Indian aviation companies displaying their latest military and civil platforms or full-scale models, aiming to catch the eye of the IAF hierarchy and the Indian MoD. The main foreign OEM exhibitors are likely to be Airbus, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), Rosoboronexport, Israel Aerospace Industry (IAI), Dassault Aviation, SAAB, Martin Baker, Safran, General Electric (GE) and Rolls Royce. It is expected that the decision for the co-design, co-development and co-manufacture of the 110 kN high-thrust jet engine with an established international engine manufacturer with IP rights will be made during the Aero India 2025. Amongst the Indian defence industry, the major exhibitors are likely to be HAL, Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bharat Forge Limited, Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), Adani Defence and Aerospace, Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL), Brahmos Aerospace, IdeaForge and Zen Technologies. As of date, more than 700 exhibitors have registered for Aero India 2025. However, in the coming days, this number is expected to surpass 809 exhibitors that were there in Aero India 2023.

Aerobatic Displays

Aero India 2025 will be having its eagerly awaited aerobatic displays twice on all the days. This would be once each morning and afternoon. The star attraction of the aerobatic displays this year would be the fifth-generation Russian Su-57 stealth fighter (Felon). This would be the first time that the Su-57 would be performing its aerial display in India, just a month after its stunning aerial display at the Zhuhai Air Show. One question that has constantly perplexed all aviation enthusiasts is how the Su-57 manage to achieve its stealthiness while having its famed manoeuvrability. Though intimated earlier that the American F-35 (Lighting II) and the F-16 (Fighting Falcon) would be part of the aerial displays at Aero India 2025, the latest inputs are that they might not be there.^[4]  If that happens, it would indeed be disappointing for the aviation enthusiasts, eagerly looking forward to seeing them perform in Bengaluru. Apart from these major flying attractions, the indigenous flying display composition would consist of the Light Combat Aircraft Mk 1A Tejas, Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) Prachand, Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) and Hindustan Turbo Trainer-40 (HTT-40). The IAF nine aircraft Surya Kiran Aerobatic Team (SKAT) would mesmerise the audiences with its scintillating aerobatic displays. Unfortunately, the IAF five helicopter Sarang’s aerobatic displays are uncertain due to the temporary grounding of the Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) for flight safety reasons. The aerial displays would be the most eagerly awaited event of each day as the performances would entertain the public and demonstrate the capabilities of the platforms to aviation enthusiasts.

Static Displays and Technology Demonstrations

Apart from the flypast, the other major attraction of Aero India 2025 would be the static displays and technology demonstrations of various military and civil platforms.

HAL would be showcasing the prototype along with its potential configuration of the Combat Air Teaming System (CATS) – Warrior wingman, of which they had achieved the successful engine ground run on January 13 this year.^[5] They would display the Optionally Manned Combat Aircraft (OMCA), based on the modified Kiran Mk 2 aircraft. This would be a part of the Manned Unmanned Team (MUMT) with the LCA Tejas as the mother-ship platform. The OMCA is proposed as a decoy to open the enemy air defence systems.

Amongst the most significant foreign OEM participants in Aero India 2025 would be Lockheed Martin, which would be showcasing the Vast ^TM Experience System, which claims to offer an immersive, interactive 3D visualisation system that would bring multi-domain systems to life. Lockheed Martin would be showcasing a number of products, which would include the C-130 Super Hercules Tactical aircraft, F-21 fighter aircraft, MH-60 “Romeo” Seahawk helicopter, Javelin anti-tank weapon system and S-92 Multi-role helicopter.^[6]

Another foreign OEM, MBDA will showcase its cutting-edge missile systems, like the Meteor Beyond Visual Range (BVR) air-to-air missile, the SCALP deep-strike cruise missile, and the versatile MICA missile.

Aero India 2025 would also have a large number of indigenous companies like IdeaForge, Garuda Aerospace, Daksha Unmanned Systems, Zen Technologies and NewSpace Research and Technologies manufacturing drones, loitering systems and Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS), which would be displaying their products. The drone sector is one where indigenous aviation companies have made tremendous progress and operationalised their platforms in the recent past. Apart from these, there would be a large number of MSMEs and start-ups showcasing their products at Aero India 2025.

Conclusion

Aero India 2025 would showcase the vibrant and rapidly improving domestic Indian aerospace industry and aviation ecosystem. The Indian Government has acknowledged the huge potential and strategic importance of the aerospace industry and has designated it as one of the core sectors for achieving ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’. Though Aero India has grown significantly over the years with the number of visitors and the foreign OEM participation, the test of its success would be when one of the indigenously developed aviation platforms is acknowledged as a contemporary and potent platform and bought by the Air Forces of the FFCs.

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Notes:-

^[1] Department of Defence Production, “Aero India 2023 Rewind”, https://www.aeroindia.gov.in.  Accessed on January 26 2025.

^[2] Press Information Bureau, “The Runway to a Billion Opportunities: Aero India 2025 to be held in Bengaluru from February 10 to 14,” https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2090516. Aaccessed on January 26 2025.

^[3] Aeronautical Society of India, “Aero India 2025 15th Biennial International Seminar,” https://www.aerosocietyindia.co.in/News/Show?code=AESINEWS121. Accessed on January 27 2025.

^[4] Smruti Deshpande, “Russian fifth-generation fighter Su-57 to be on display at Aero India 2025,”The Print, January 28, 2025, Defence section, https://theprint.in/defence/stage-set-for-russian-american-5th-generation-fighters-faceoff-at-aero-india-2025/2467272/. Accessed on January 29 2025.

^[5]Bhaswar Kumar, “CATS Warrior: HAL completes key test of loyal wingman for deep-strike ops,” Business Standard, January 13, 2025, External Affairs Defence Security section, https://www.businessstandard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/cats-warrior-hal-completes-key-test-of-loyal-wingman-for-deep-strike-ops-125011300631_1.html. Accessed on January 26 2025.

^[6] “Lockheed Martin: Pioneering Advanced Technology Solutions for India’s Technology Solutions for India’s 21st Century Needs,” Indian Aerospace and Defence Bulletin, January 28, 2025, Defence section, https://www.iadb.in/2025/01/28/lockheed-martin-pioneering-advanced-technology-solutions-for-indias-21st-century-needs/. Accessed on January 28 2025.

(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Centre for Air Power Studies [CAPS])

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