Author: Air Cmde Savinder Pal Singh VSM (Retd), Senior Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies
30 June 2023

Keywords: Indigenous fighter jet engines, iCET, India-US engine deal, AatmaNirbhar Bharat

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Keywords: MQ-9 Reaper drones, Predator B, Hellfire missile, Indo-US Partnership

Introduction

India’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has recently granted approval for the procurement of 30 MQ-9 Reaper (Predator B) drones[1] from the United States, marking a momentous milestone in India’s defence landscape. Among these drones, 15 will be allocated to the Indian Navy, which has been leasing an earlier version of the drone for the past few years. The timing of this decision, coinciding with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming state visit to the United States, further emphasizes its significance in strengthening India’s defence capabilities. The acquisition of these advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has the potential to revolutionise India’s surveillance operations and enhance its national defence framework. Additionally, it highlights the strategic partnership between India and the United States, showcasing India’s commitment to bolstering its defence infrastructure. This DAC approval, led by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, sets the stage for subsequent deliberations by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). As high-value acquisitions require final approval from the CCS, this decision underscores the government’s unwavering dedication to advancing India’s defence capabilities and safeguarding national interests.

With the acquisition of Predator drones, the Indian Navy reinforces its dedication to enhancing India’s maritime surveillance capabilities. Procuring 15 drones for the Navy demonstrates India’s intent to bolster its surveillance capabilities, particularly within its area of responsibility in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This strategic move aligns with India’s broader objectives of safeguarding its maritime interests and maintaining a strong presence in the IOR. Expanding the UAV fleet strengthens India’s ability to monitor activities, deter potential threats, and safeguard its extensive coastline.

Figure 1: US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper armed with bombs and air-to-ground missiles

Versatility and Power of MQ-9 Reaper Drones in India’s Defence Arsenal

The Predator B drones exhibit remarkable capabilities, serving diverse functions and incorporating advanced features. Boasting an operational ceiling reaching 50,000 feet and an endurance exceeding 27 hours, these unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) excel in conducting extended surveillance missions[1]. Equipped with state-of-the-art sensors and payloads, they acquire real-time intelligence and execute precise targeting operations. Additionally, the Predator B drones possess the capacity to carry and deploy air-to-ground missiles, thereby providing a formidable offensive capability. Their adaptability enables them to effectively monitor expansive areas, identify potential threats, and support intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) tasks. Moreover, their integration into India’s defence arsenal heightens situational awareness, facilitates the response to emerging security challenges, and bolsters the nation’s overall defence posture.

The acquisition of the Predator B drones highlights the pressing need to address India’s evolving security concerns, particularly in the face of regional threats. While the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) is actively engaged in developing an indigenous armed drone, the complexity and urgency of the situation necessitated the direct procurement of the Predator-B drones. Opting for the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route, the Indian government ensures a streamlined acquisition process, upholding transparency and integrity in defence deals. The advanced capabilities of these drones, such as precision targeting, air-to-ground missiles, and surveillance payloads, significantly bolster India’s capacity to counter emerging security challenges effectively. Moreover, the deployment of Predators would greatly enhance national ISR missions, ultimately benefiting the region by enabling tracking and monitoring of activities like illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, marine pollution, narcotics and terrorism traffic, sanctions enforcement, and safeguarding the sea lines of communication with heightened safety and security. Presently, ISR of the Sino-India border in high-altitude areas of Ladakh is being done by Heron and Searcher drones. Due to their limited power, endurance, and height ceiling, the continuous and effective monitoring of the Sino-India border is a challenge. The acquisition of the MQ-9 Reaper would eliminate this chink.

A Hunter-Killer

While it is widely acknowledged that targeted killing raises ethical concerns, the MQ-9 Reaper drones have been specially designed for a ‘hunter-killer’ role rather than just for ISR. The advanced features of the MQ-9 Reaper, including its long endurance, high-altitude capability, and precision targeting systems, have made it an effective tool in combating specific threats. The lethality of these

drones stems from their payload of Hellfire air-to-ground missile (AGM), which is often a warhead-less missile (to reduce collateral damage) especially developed for precision[2] drone strikes against high-value targets.

The instances of the elimination of high-profile terrorist leaders and individuals involved in insurgent activities by MQ-9 Reaper drones have been widely documented. It would be pertinent to mention some historical instances of the MQ-9 Reaper drones employed for such purposes. A prime illustrative example of its hunter-killer capability was the elimination of British-born ISIS terrorist Jihadi John in 2015[3] by the US Air Force. In January 2020, MQ-9 Reaper was again in action, killing Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Quds Force. Sulemani was killed in a Hellfire missile strike fired by MQ-9 Reaper drones at Baghdad International Airport[4]. These drones have also been utilised in the past for targeted killing operations by the United States in regions like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen.

In extraterritorial lethal counter-terrorism operations, including in the context of asymmetrical armed conflict, it is often alleged that the increasing use of remotely piloted aircraft, or drones, in the past has caused a disproportionate number of civilian casualties. However, the MQ-9 Reaper drone has earned distinction for minimising collateral damage.

The Indian Air Force and Indian Navy already have a complement of Hellfire missiles. This acquisition of MQ-9 Reapers would arm India with the capability to strike hard at our asymmetric adversaries. The tactical military capability of the US, demonstrated by many successful remotely piloted air strikes, had enabled the US to pursue a very effective anti-terror strategy against non-state actors holed up in adversarial states. However, engaging in a nuanced discussion about the legal, moral, and accountability dimensions surrounding the targeted killings is crucial to ensure that the use of these drones aligns with international humanitarian standards and respects the principles of human rights and due process.

Fostering Global Partnerships

The approval granted by the DAC for the acquisition of the Predator B drones, preceding Prime Minister Modi’s state visit to the United States, holds significant implications. This visit marks Prime Minister Modi’s inaugural meeting with the present administration during his nine-year tenure, underscoring the importance of the bilateral relationship between the two countries.

The acquisition of the MQ-9 Reaper drones signifies a significant achievement for India’s defence capabilities and paves the way for future defence agreements. The strategic partnership between India and the United States has experienced remarkable growth, with defence cooperation serving as a crucial foundation. The procurement of advanced UAVs, including the Predator drones, further strengthens this partnership, fostering avenues for information-sharing, interoperability, and joint exercises. This milestone establishes a precedent for future collaboration and the exchange of defence technologies between the two nations. As India continues to prioritise defence modernisation and self-reliance, it is evident that such acquisitions will play a pivotal role in bolstering its defence capabilities and fostering international partnerships.

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Notes:

[1] Anisha Dutta, “Officials Targeted in New Phishing Bid via Govt IDs,” Hindustan Times, January 18, 2022, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/officials-targeted-in-new-phishing-bid-via-govt-ids-101614282608264.html. Accessed on 25 Jun 23.Aeronautical Systems Inc., https://www.ga-asi.com/remotely-piloted-aircraft/mq-9a. Accessed on 26 Jun 2023

[2] General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, “MQ-9A Reaper (Predator B),” General Atomics

[3] “Ayman Al-Zawahiri: Taking down a Terrorist,” The Times of India, August 3, 2022, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/ayman-al-zawahiri-taking-down-a-terrorist/articleshow/93310613.cms. Accessed on 19 Jun 2023.

[4] Ben Quinn, Richard Norton-Taylor, and Alice Ross, “Mohammed Emwazi Killed in Raqqa Strike, Says Rights Group,” The Guardian, November 13, 2015, sec. UK news, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/13/jihadi-john-definitely-killed-syria-raqqa-dead. Accessed on 19 Jun 2023.

[5] Russ Read, “World’s Most Feared Drone: CIA’s MQ-9 Reaper Killed Soleimani,” Washington Examiner, January 3, 2020, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/worlds-most-feared-drone-cias-mq-9-reaper-killed-soleimani. Accessed on 19 Jun 2023.

(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Centre for Air Power Studies [CAPS])

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Keywords: Artemis Accords, Moon Mission, Outer Space Treaty, India-US.

In a significant development during the recent visit of the Indian Prime Minister to the US, India signed the Artemis Accords on June 21, 2023. India is now the 27^th signatory nation to the treaty. Other signatories to the Artemis Accords include major space powers like France, Japan, Israel, Brazil, the UAE, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. It is noteworthy that Russia and China have not accepted these accords and have embarked on a joint moon mission.[1]

The Artemis Accords were drafted and introduced by the US in 2020, together with seven other founding member nations, to foster safe and sustainable exploration of the Moon and other celestial bodies like Mars and beyond. These are a set of non-legally binding principles, statements, and best practices that have been derived from the Outer Space Treaty of 1967. They are aimed at international cooperation in space exploration and allowing all nations to benefit from the scientific data obtained in space, even those without space programs. The immediate objectives seem to be towards achieving a collaborative approach towards the Artemis Moon missions.  For the US, international cooperation through partnerships with other space-capable nations and private companies is vital to the success of the Artemis programme. The benefits will be mutual for the countries that have signed the accords. This would allow participating states to have access to space exploration missions and the benefits accrued, most importantly for exploiting resources on the Moon when having their own solo moon missions would have been beyond reach.

The Artemis Accords will be followed by the signatory countries for all civil space activities that are to happen on celestial bodies like the Moon, Mars, and asteroids for mineral exploration, sample return, commercial activities, scientific research, human missions, including inhabitation, protection of historic landing sites, and deconfliction of activities. These rules will also apply to the control of activities in the orbital regions of the Moon and Mars, the occupation of Lagrange points in cislunar space, and transit between celestial bodies. The core of the accords consists of guidelines to prevent conflict on the Moon and Mars, which may arise with multiple Moon missions being planned by countries like China, Russia, the US, India, Japan, and the European consortium. Safety of operations and, more importantly, prevention of conflict while protecting state interests on the Moon seem to be of immediate concern for the US.

The other provisions of the Artemis Accords include the underlying principle of peaceful purposes for all activities undertaken on the Moon and a reminder that the resources and real estate in space are not subject to national appropriation. To further these goals the Artemis Accords encourage members to have transparency in their activities and adopt international standards while striving to support interoperability with partner states. The Artemis Accords also urge members to commit to taking reasonable steps towards ensuring the provisions of the liability convention, registration convention, and rescue agreement. In effect, the provisions of the basic space treaties have been extended to activities on the Moon and beyond. To prevent skirmishes and harmful interference between operators on the Moon, the accords have provided for the delineation of operating areas on the principle of a first-come, first-served basis where a safety zone is to be established.[2] This is a contentious provision that will see many debates.

The success of the Artemis Moon mission in the US may have been the trigger for the emergence of the Artemis Accords, but these accords are not the first and only means of regulating activity on the Moon. The ‘Moon Treaty’ or ‘Moon Agreement’ was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1979 in ‘Resolution 34/68.’ However, this has not been ratified by either of the major space powers, like the US, Russia, or China. The reasons for the non-acceptance of the Moon Treaty are similar to those that prevailed for the Artemis Accords. Knowing well that Russia and China would not come on board, the US chose to forge an alliance of like-minded states with the Artemis Accords, which clearly favour American interests. The catalyst is clearly the Artemis Moon programme, whose success rests on partnerships with states that have a shared vision for the exploration of the Moon and Mars and the exploitation of their resources.

Meanwhile, Russia and China have embarked on a joint Moon mission. In June 2021, Russia and China announced plans for a joint International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), which is to be an inhabited research station at the south pole of the Moon. However, the war in Ukraine proved to have been a setback and seemed to have impacted their plans. China has opened its Moon missions to international participation. Sweden, France, and the European Agency have committed to experiments on the Chinese Chang’e missions to the Moon.[3]  Japan has also been active in Moon missions. They recently made a failed attempt at landing a rover on the Moon. Japan is now undertaking a joint venture with India to develop a spacecraft for the Lunar Polar Exploration Mission (LUPEX).[4] Japan has also been the first to send a sample return mission to the asteroid ‘Ryugu’. The mission spacecraft ‘Hayabusa2’ was launched in 2014, and it returned to Earth in 2020.[5] India has also been active in the Moon missions with its Chandrayaan missions.

The US has been aggressively campaigning and rallying support for the Artemis Accords and getting partners on board. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords has been under consideration ever since its introduction. For India, it was a difficult choice as it goes against India’s traditional approach of being non-aligned. But there were not many options. Being neutral or going with the Russia-China missions would mean an unpredictable delay. There is a need for swift action, especially when more and more space-faring states are vying for a share of resources on the Moon. Joining the Artemis Accords is seen as in the best interest of India’s space ambitions. It is only hoped that due diligence was done before signing on the dotted line. The Artemis Accords have far-reaching implications that would unfold with human inhabitation of the Moon and Mars. Being an agreement that is not under the UN umbrella, India has taken a bold step by favouring a rule-based approach in outer space. As commercial and state-sponsored activity begins on the Moon and Mars, the inadequacy of the Artemis Accords will unfold. India needs to move ahead with cautious optimism in this new era of global competition in space.

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1] “The Republic of India Signs the Artemis Accords”, US Department of State, June 24, 2023, https://www.state.gov/the-republic-of-india-signs-the-artemis-accords/#:~:text=In%20a%20ceremony%20held%20at,sustainable%20and%20transparent%20space%20activity. Accessed June 24, 2023.

[2] “The Artemis Accords”, NASA, October 13, 2020, https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/img/Artemis-Accords-signed-13Oct2020.pdf. Accessed June 24, 2023.

[3] Jeffrey Kluger, “China Wants New Partners for Its Moon Missions as Its Relationship With Russia Cools”, Time, September 30, 2022, https://time.com/6218389/china-russia-moon-missions/. Accessed June 25, 2023.

[4] “Lunar Polar Exploration Mission (LUPEX)”, JAXA SDGs, March 31, 2023, https://sdgs.jaxa.jp/en/article/detail/13.html. Accessed June 25, 2023.

[5] Keith Cooper, “Asteroid Ryugu contains material older than the planets, among the most primitive ever studied on Earth”, Space, June 10, 2022,  https://www.space.com/asteroid-ryugu-sample-older-than-planets. Accessed June 25, 2023

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Keywords: Loitering Munitions, ALS-50, Aatmanirbharta, Suicide Drones, Precision-Guided Weapons.

Tata Advance Systems Limited (TASL) had recently successfully delivered the Advanced Loitering System-50 (ALS-50), or ‘Suicide Drone,’ loitering munition to the Indian Air Force (IAF).[1] This has not only reduced the dependence on foreign military equipment imports but has also given a boost to the ‘Make in India’ initiative of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ALS-50 was displayed at the DefExpo 2022 and received the Raksha Mantri’s Award for Excellence in the Defence and Aerospace Sector.[2]

Loitering munitions are simply advanced and autonomous missiles that can hover in the air for a set period of time, track or identify their target, and then hit it with utmost accuracy. Loitering munitions mostly follow the remote control system through which they can be operated at the time of loitering. Equipped with a camera, these drones can loiter around the target and provide imagery to the command-and-control centres. Once the troops see a promising target, they can order the drone to dive onto it and detonate its warhead. Sometimes, though, hitting the target becomes difficult for loitering munitions in the case of targets in motion like tanks and boats. For instance, Russia deployed the Lancet-3 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to strike a moving Ukrainian boat on the Dnieper River near Zaporizhzhia.[3] The loitering munitions in the case of stationed or fixed targets work on a ‘fire and forget’ concept. The recent use of loitering munitions, also known as revolutionary weapons, draws attention to the use of autonomous weapon systems for future warfare, the degrees of their autonomy, the procedures to identify targets accurately, and most importantly, the compliance with the laws of war per se.

ALS-50 can be distinguished as a drone that has a length of 2.4 meters, a wingspan of 3.8 meters, and a maximum take-off weight of 50 kg. With a range of over 50 km, it can stay airborne for more than an hour. Not only does it have fixed landing gear with four legs, but it also has a chin-mounted electro-optic/infrared (EO/IR) turret and can carry anti-armour warheads.[4]

This drone possesses vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) capability, making it compatible with operating in any terrain, including high-altitude areas and mountainous regions. The VTOL feature allows it to be launched like a quadcopter. The drone can then transform to a fixed-wing mode for flying longer distances. Additionally, it has five more compatible flying modes, such as fully-autonomous, semi-autonomous, loitering, attacking, and returning home. The weapon projects autonomous capabilities and precision attacks as well, reducing the personnel’s exposure to risks. It will allow the IAF to conduct missions and swift precision strikes from any terrain, such as the deck of ships, valleys, jungle clearings, etc.

In the world today, they surely act as a bridge between the precision-guided weapons that require human intervention and the autonomous weapon systems of the future with little or no human involvement. India’s induction of the ALS-50 has boosted the offensive capabilities of the country in the international market. The ALS-50 successfully demonstrated its capabilities during the tests in the Pokhran district of Rajasthan when it accurately hit the defined ground target with an explosive warhead.[5] The ALS-50 had also been successfully tested in Ladakh.

The induction of the ALS-50 loitering munition depicts the IAF’s ambitions towards military modernisation and securing the concept of ‘self-reliance’ in defence procurement. With the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the importance of procuring loitering munitions has significantly increased. Given the at the geopolitical location of India and the threat perception from adversaries like China and Pakistan, it is high time that India focuses on manufacturing and inducting such technologies into its armed forces in order to not only enhance its offensive systems against enemy attacks but also protect its national security.

It is quintessential for India to meet the challenges posed by its adversaries, hence, capital expenditure in the defence sector becomes crucial. The Finance Minister of India, Nirmala Sitharaman recently increased the allocation to defence budget with almost Rs. 69 lakhs as compared to last year. Additionally, India’s defence exports have significantly increased and reached an all-time high of almost ₹ 16,000 crores in the financial year 2022-23, compared to a mere ₹460.97 crores in FY 2012-13, and have brought a positive difference of approximately 2300 per cent, in the last nine years.[6] A blend of weapons such as the Akash missiles, radar simulators, avionic components, and even BrahMos missiles reached a market of 85 countries.

The primary reason behind the significant boost in exports is not only the increased production through capital outlays in the defence sector but also the streamlining of sales according to policy reforms. It was announced by the government of India that it aims to attract ₹ 1,75,000 crore in investment by the year 2024-25 to achieve the vision of Aatmanirbhar Bharat in defence.[7] When it comes to the ALS-50, the defence economic infrastructure of India is likely to profit at greater rates because, apart from being a cost-friendly drone, it is equally precise at hitting targets. Moreover, the fact that these loitering munitions can be called off mid-air provides a unique advantage.

Loitering munitions fall in between drones and missiles, and they cannot be purely defined as a missile or a drone separately. When compared to traditional missiles, mortars, and rockets, loitering munitions can be fired from either land, sea, or air. These weapons can be launched from man-portable systems, combat vehicles, and even rotary and fixed-wing aircraft. Cost-wise, these munitions are much cheaper than anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). These munitions can also return to the launch positions if the target is not found, thus saving good amounts of money, thanks to artificial intelligence (AI).

Additionally, the loitering munitions have a low radar cross-section (RCS), unlike the traditional cruise missiles, which makes them less detectable in the eyes of radars and sensors. These types of weapon systems are finding their way onto the battlefield and will certainly have applications in future military operations. With India procuring these systems, it will enhance its overall security architecture and combat readiness in the future.

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[1] Joe Saballa, “Indian Air Force Inducts Indigenous ALS-50 Kamikaze Drone”, The Defence Post, June 08, 2023, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/06/08/india-indigenous-kamikaze-drone/, accessed on June 11, 2023.

[2] “DEFEXPO-2022: Tata Advanced Systems Wins ‘Raksha Mantri’s Award’”, Bharatshakti, October 22, 2022, https://bharatshakti.in/defexpo-2022-tata-advanced-systems-wins-raksha-mantris-award/, accessed on June 12, 2023.

[3] Parth Satam, “Russia’s Lancet-3 UAV ‘Blows Up’ Ukraine’s Patrol Vessel Near Zaporizhzhia, Incident Caught On Camera”, The Eurasian Times, April 20, 2023, https://eurasiantimes.com/armed-boat-vs-loitering-munition-lancet-russia/, accessed on June 11, 2023.

[4] Oishee Majumdar and Akshara Parakala, “Aero India 2023: IAF to receive 100 loitering munitions from TASL”, Janes, February 16, 2023, https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/aero-india-2023-iaf-to-receive-100-loitering-munitions-from-tasl#:~:text=ALS%2D50%20is%20a%20vertical,50%20km%2C%20the%20sources%20added., accessed on June 11, 2023.

[5] Tanmay Kadam, “India, China, Russia Test Their Versions Of Switchblade Drones As Ukraine War Makes Loitering Munitions Popular”, The Eurasian Times, September 25, 2022, https://eurasiantimes.com/india-china-russia-test-their-versions-of-switchblade-drones-as-ukraine-war/, accessed on June 11, 2023.

[6] “Defence exports touch all-time high of ₹15,920 crore: Rajnath Singh”, The Hindu, April 01, 2023, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-exported-military-hardware-worth-15920-crore-in-2022-23-rajnath-singh/article66686819.ece, accessed on June 11, 2023.

[7] Gaurav Mehndiratta, “View: How the Budget can add more firepower to India’s defence manufacturing”, The Economic Times, January 17, 2022, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/view-how-the-budget-can-add-more-firepower-to-indias-defence-manufacturing/articleshow/88948872.cms?from=mdr, accessed on June 11, 2023.

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Keywords: Summit, prominence, strategic, sway, neighbours, infrastructure , multilateral, diplomacy.

Background

The ‘Group of Seven or popularly known as the ‘G-7,’ is an exclusive club of the world’s rich and affluent nations which has the mandate to represent their larger interests and the worldview from their perspective. India first participated as an invitee to the G-7 summit, which was initially called the ‘G-8 with Russia also being a part thereof. However, Russia ceased to be the member post the Crimean annexation in 2014. Hence, the G-8 became the G-7.

The present-day fabric of the G-7 seems to be gaining prominence especially due to the fact that, with relations between Russia and the USA getting strained, the UN Security Council seems to be gradually losing its effectiveness.

Impact of Indian Foreign Policy on India’s rising international sway

India’s rising influence as a special invitee to the G-7 summit consecutively on a number of times can be seen resting on the cardinal values and the philosophy that the Indian foreign policy is treasured with. Indian foreign policy can draw parallels with an elephant where every other person (read country) tries to touch and feel different parts thereof to draw one’s own inference and to understand its implications for their respective national interests. Conceptually, India’s foreign policy rests on the cardinal ideologies of non-alignment, strategic autonomy and promotion of serene concomitance among the countries of the world.

India maintains friendly strategic alliances with almost every country in general. This goes a long way towards making its presence felt at nearly every important international event and indirectly contributes to enhancing its worldwide sway. Some key aspects of India’s foreign policy that support this thought process broadly include:

Primacy Towards Neighbours

India always gives first and foremost priority to its neighbours and strives to maintain global tranquillity and the stability of power equations in the region. The proactive Vaccine diplomacy practised by India for nations around the world amidst recent Covid-19 pandemic constitutes the biggest example of this thought process.

Uniting the World for a Common Cause

India has been actively involving the nations of the world to formulate and execute the strategy against common issues like the environment, climate change, poor medical conditions and infrastructure in some of the less privileged nations with a natural leadership posture having a benevolent protector’s disposition.

Multilateral Groupings

India is seen getting actively involved in the business conducted by the multilateral organisations e.g. the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, BIMSTEC, the G-7, the G-20, and the BRICS etc just to name a few with singular strategic aim; i.e. to make an active contribution to global governance and address global challenges.

Countering Terrorism

India is closely coordinating with friendly transnational allies to draft the anti-terror doctrines and getting into action to jointly combat terrorism.

Mutually Win-Win Economic Diplomacy

India is actively practising a vigorous economic diplomacy based on a mutually win-win approach. This is highly effective in so far as it has the capability to attract a larger chunk of inward investments by enhancing the international trade ties and creating infrastructure, thereby moving in the direction of achieving better economic progression among all the participating nations.

Strategic Partnerships

India is actively involved in entering into a number of strategic partnerships with many of the countries based on collective interests and common paybacks. It has entered into multidimensional strategic partnerships with some developed countries e.g. The USA, Russia, Japan, France, Australia and a few others, while the less privileged nations are looking up to India to get into agreements so as to further their respective national aspirations.

Powerful Track-II Diplomacy

India has recently been found to be focusing upon the Track II diplomatic approach more than ever before through its rich cultural heritage and soft power initiatives like International Yoga Day and international promotion of Indian cinema, besides promoting Indian cuisine, literature and art, to enhance its worldwide sway.

Utilising Air Power for Defensive as well as Humanitarian Causes

India has the powerful air power capability which is manifest in the special role played by the Indian Air Force and civil air agencies for the military as well as peaceful humanitarian purposes. The recent evacuation of Indians as well as nationals of some other countries stranded in the trouble torn Ukraine, Sudan and Afghanistan etc by successfully utilising its transport fleet, has demonstrated India’s noble attitude of ‘Care for All’ disposition, regardless of any ideological dissonance that India may be having against any nation whatsoever. This humanitarian face of India has gone a long way in generating a greater respect for India worldwide.

India’s Membership of G-7 as a Force Enhancer for India’s Strategic Aspirations

Having analysed some of the contributing foreign policy factors that help strengthening India’s diplomatic standing in the world, we need to respond to the candid question as to whether India’s membership in the G-7 can possibly help in furtherance of India’s strategic aspirations. An analysis of some of the undermentioned factors may help us draw plausible deductions to this effect:

Economic Prospects

The G-7 as a group comprises of some of the world’s strongest economies and key business associates having tremendous business potential. India’s inclusion in this body might give it a much desired entry into a forum where economic issues and trade policies are deliberated upon potentially culminating into increased trade opportunities and investment inflows.

Global Impact

The G-7 membership might heighten India’s global silhouette and enhance its impact on significant global issues. It would provide an effective platform to India enabling it to voice its stance and priorities on important issues like climate change, global governance and undoubtedly security against terrorism.

International Networking and Conglomerates

Being a part of the G-7 may also offer India a chance to have direct interactions with the leaders of some of the most prominent countries in the world. This networking associated with a personalised touch in the diplomacy, which India has been recently practising, can foster better and more meaningful bilateral relationships and strategic partnerships on various fronts.

Foreign Policy Alignment

The G-7 deliberations also center around critical global issues like climate change, security and health and so on. India’s G-7 membership might enable it to align its policies with those of other G-7 member nations thereby directly and indirectly contributing to the global initiatives in perfect sync with the efforts to address common concerns.

Support for Development

India’s membership of the G-7 might open avenues for increased assistance for the development of infrastructure and better access to the transfer of technology. This would benefit India in terms of realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals for India’s economic and social development.

Future prospects

It’s worth noting that G-7 membership for India entails a thorough process and requires unanimity among the member countries. While India has till now participated in G-7 summits as an invitee, the formal membership is yet to be institutionalised. Nevertheless, an active engagement with the G-7 and other multilateral forums remains strategically imperative for India so as to help it pursue its strategic interests at the global level.

As mentioned above, India has been a special invitee to the G-7 Summit consecutively for the fifth time. By virtue of being one of the major democracies of the world and defence spending wise the third in the world, it acquires special suitability to obtain the permanent membership of G-7. This is also worth mentioning here that the guest appearance of India at the G-7 on so many occasions in a series also hints at India ostensibly being on the right diplomatic course besides having been placed predominantly amidst extant international power equations.

India has successfully staged an elderly disposition in the international political sphere through various initiatives like Vaccine Maitri in face of the pandemic or as a saviour of the nationals not only of India but also of other countries as well. India stood by the true spirit of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam when citizens of many nations were recently stuck in trouble-torn countries like Afghanistan, Ukraine or Sudan, or coming forward with HADR to the needy nations. All this collectively makes India’s global position strong enough to be able to wield the desired influence at the international level.

The ongoing Indian technological advancements in diverse fields, defence preparedness and progress in the aviation industry, engineering, medical science and India willingness to share with the nations that need its assistance, besides addressing the other tenets of soft power definitely accord India an edge over any big country that might have traditionally been placing itself as a world leader or super power hitherto.

Considering all the above, it would be in the larger interest of India to aim at obtaining the permanent membership of G-7 besides retaining its traditional edge on other international platforms like the G-20, ASEAN, SCO, BRICS, BIMSTEC and many others. India certainly enjoys good prospects of succeeding in impacting the world order, utilising its forward looking diplomacy and the international clamour that it enjoys.

 In fact, the inclusion of India as a member of the G-7 has bright prospects for making the G-7 more representative of the global economic order. India being a G-7 member stands in a better position to potentially impact the world order also by virtue of being the world’s one of the most populous country with a rapidly growing economy. India’s economic robustness and its rapid progress would positively contribute to shaping the global economic order. Additionally, India’s geopolitical appeal and its active role in addressing the global challenges are expected to significantly impact the world order.

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Author: Dr Joshy M. Paul, Research Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies
26 June 2023

Keywords: Japan’s Defence Industry, India-Japan Defence Cooperation, Air Power.

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Keywords: NGCCM, CCM, ASRAAM, R-73, MBDA, DRDO

The ‘Next-Generation Close Combat Missile’ (NGCCM) is an enhanced short-range infrared homing missile for 5^th generation aircraft currently being developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). MBDA, a European multinational weapons manufacturer, and Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), state-owned Indian military corporation, have reached an agreement to create a facility in India for the final assembly, integration, and testing of the Advanced Short Range Air-To-Air Missiles (ASRAAM). The new facility will first emphasise MBDA’s ASRAAM; thus, the company will supply “equipment, knowledge, and training” to start moving in the right direction.[1]

The ASRAAM was India’s top pick, and a contract worth US $250 million was struck with the company. According to the terms of the agreement, the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) fleet of upgraded SEPECAT Jaguar fighter aircraft will be equipped with the ASRAAM, with plans to incorporate the system into the Sukhoi Su-30 MK-I eventually. The ASRAAM for the IAF has been named the ‘New Generation Close Combat Missile’ (NGCCM). This designation was given to it since it is a component of their arsenal. The R-73 SRAAM, which was manufactured in Russia and has not been as productive over the last several years, will be replaced by the more cost-effective and efficient ASRAAM, which will be manufactured in India.[2]

The European version of ASRAAM has an infrared homing system that can track and home in on a target from a range that is inside the line of sight. The missile’s weight is 88 kg (194 pounds), and it has a range of more than 25 km (15.5 miles). The F/A-18, the F-35 Lightning II, the Eurofighter Typhoon, and the Tornado can all carry this missile. The air forces of Australia and the United Kingdom both use these munitions these days. In addition, an order for them has been placed by the IAF.[3]

Under the terms of the agreement, MBDA will collaborate with BDL to set up a facility inside the latter’s existing production complex in Bhanur, Telangana. In the future, MBDA’s Common Anti-Air Modular Missile (CAMM) assembly, integration, and testing services will be carried out at this location. CAMM may provide anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence, a surface-to-air missile with a short range that can be fired from land-based positions. MBDA is fulfilling the Indian Navy’s request for a short-range surface-to-air missile by supplying the CAMM as part of the Sea Ceptor air defence system. This induction will allow the Indian Navy to defend its aircraft better.[4]

Potentials and Limitations

The NGCCM is an infrared-homing short-range missile with a maximum range of 20 km that can operate in all weather conditions. With the two-way data link, the missile may, even after being launched, be guided to the location of its intended target. It will be able to engage targets not in the launching aircraft’s direct line of sight thanks to its Lock-On After Launch (LOAL) capabilities and 90-degree off-boresight targeting capabilities. The superior performance of this capability will make it impossible for the R-73 missile to compete with it.[5] The IAF intends to utilise it to replace the R-73 missiles that are installed on its existing 4^th and 4.5 generation aircraft.[6] However, even if the air force decided to equip its fleet of around 270 Su-30 MKI with ASRAAMs, the current stockpile of missiles would be utilised by the Rafale, Mirage, and Jaguar aircraft.

The ASRAAMs are designed to be used in conjunction with a radar system. The IAF has high expectations that it will be able to reduce the amount of money it spends on weapons and the maintenance they need if it decides to standardise its entire fleet on the Close Combat Missile (CCM).

The NGCCM is presently being developed in two different iterations: one that is ‘directed’ and one that is ‘unguided’. The guided version of the missile will include an advanced ‘seeker’ that uses infrared imaging technology to assist it in zeroing in on its intended target. The unguided variant of the missile will be equipped with a less sophisticated infrared seeker, which will give it the ability to recognise and follow targets to a lesser extent. It can track targets in all situations. The pilot and the missile are connected by a two-way data link, allowing continuous target updates.

The work being done on the NGCCM by the DRDO is a component of a broader initiative that aims to provide the IAF with a new generation of air-to-air missiles (AAMs). Its fighter jets will become more resistant to damage due to the missile. It is expected that the NGCCM will be inducted into the IAF at some point in the 2030s. Within the family of indigenous missiles, it will take its place alongside other missiles such as the Astra Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missile (BVRAAM) and the Advanced AAM-5. Currently in development are two weight classes: one for the Tejas light combat aircraft (LCA) and another for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) of the 5^th generation.

One of the most significant downsides of the NGCCM is that it still needs to be operational and is still in the process of being developed. The MICA-NG and several other modern missile systems are NGCCM’s potential competitors.

Conclusion

The NGCCM is a significant advancement for the IAF. It will provide the IAF with advanced air-to-air missiles with close range that belong to the most recent generation. Given the prevalence of AAM in the future, it is important to consider about ensuring that all IAF aircraft can exploit NGCCM. The NGCCM will not only improve the air combat capabilities of the IAF but will also act as a deterrent against potential aggressors.

Partnerships between Indian businesses and international original equipment manufacturers will play an essential role in producing military equipment and establishing self-sufficiency, i.e., a concrete step towards atmnirbharta. The IAF has high expectations that it will be able to reduce the amount of money it spends on weapons and the maintenance they need if it decides to standardise its entire fleet on the CCM. The NGCCM project of the DRDO will be able to use the technical and manufacturing experience acquired via the ASRAAM programme.

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Notes:-

[1] Inder Singh Bisht, “MBDA to Invest in Indian Missile Development Unit”, The Defence Post, August 24, 2021, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/08/24/mbda-asraam-facility-india/. Accessed on June 11, 2023.

[2]  Jon Grevatt,  “MBDA outlines Indian missile investment plan”, Janes, August 23, 2021, https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/mbda-outlines-indian-missile-investment-plan_19786. Accessed on June 15, 2023.

[3]  Ibid.

[4]  Bisht, n1.

[5]  Bisht,n1.

[6] “Bharat Dynamics, MBDA missiles deal to help indigenous programs in India, says GlobalData”, Defence Review Asia, August 24, 2021  https://defencereviewasia.com/bharat-dynamics-mbda-missiles-deal-to-help-indigenous-programs-in-india-says-globaldata/. Accessed on June 11, 2023.

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Keywords: Indian Ocean, Mauritius, Maldives, Chequebook Diplomacy of China, Private Sector

While addressing the 6^th Indian Ocean Conference (IOC) in Dhaka on May 12, 2023, India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, pointed out the distinctiveness of the Indian Ocean in the larger framework of the Indo-Pacific. He posited that though the Indian and the Pacific Oceans are joined at the hip, both are different due to their colonial past, regional identity, and geopolitical relationship.[1] This is also reflected in its different pace of development, which has opened the bandore of opportunities and challenges. On one side, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) knows no bounds and has touched the borders of almost all the countries in the region as it completes ten years in 2023; on the other hand, New Delhi’s aspirations of a residential power are at an all-time high. Both the continental neighbours, India and China, are now vying for influence in the maritime domain too. Thus, it becomes important to understand the gaps that India can capitalise on to keep its neighbourhood intact.

Among the gracious presence of more than fifteen countries at the 6^th IOC, participation from the island states of Mauritius and the Maldives at the presidential and vice-presidential levels was significant. Leaders from both these island nations mentioned the vulnerability of the supply chains witnessed, first during the COVID-19 pandemic, which reflected their overdependence on China,[2] and second, during the Russia-Ukraine war. As the economies of these island countries are mainly import-driven, there is a desire among these countries to internationalise their partnerships within the region and beyond. In this regard, India, as a residential power, can play a game-changing role.

With a special focus on Atmanirbharta, concomitant with various manufacturing and industrial level reforms, New Delhi must utilise the window to truly realise its ‘Made in India, and Delivered by India’ push. Instead of carping over deep government pockets, the private sector must enhance its regional and global influence. Some of the big-ticket projects recently undertaken by India’s private sector include Reliance Jio’s undersea cable system in the Maldives,[3] the supply of electricity from Adani’s Godda plant in Jharkhand to Bangladesh,[4] and a wind power project of Adani’s in Sri Lanka.[5] Better infrastructure will further boost tourism and the blue economy, especially in the island countries. However, India must be mindful of the potential controversies arising from project quality, a lack of understanding of the host country’s policies, and geopolitical realities.

The Indian Ocean comprises continental countries, archipelagos, and tiny islands. It brings together Eastern Africa, West Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia in an integrated space. Thus, geographically, the region is too vast to be secured by any one country. Today, the region is at the crossroads of various challenges like climate change, illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, piracy, armed robbery, and human and drug trafficking.

These issues directly impact India because of its central location in the IOR. The Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent, two main drug-producing areas of the world, form the bookends of the IOR. It has resulted in huge amounts of illegal drugs being smuggled into India, thereby making its coastal states like Gujarat and Maharashtra and island territories like Lakshadweep vulnerable. The prospects of sea level rise for countries like the Maldives are leading to climate migration towards India. The shift in piracy towards the eastern Indian Ocean near the Singapore and Malacca Straits can emerge as a major roadblock for India due to its rising economic interests in the East. IUU is another challenge that affects the survivability and income security of coastal communities, due to which 30 per cent of the available fish stock is beyond sustainable limits.[6] These issues impact not only India but also small island territories that are geographically distant from the countries of the IOR, have small areas versus large coastlines, and have constrained fiscal and public sector capacity, in addition to a narrow range of economic activities like agriculture, fisheries, and tourism. Looking at the above matters only from an economic or environmental perspective will belittle the problem. Instead, these challenges require holistic, sustainable, and collaborative solutions.

Despite the presence of the various multilateral bodies covering different aspects of the Indian Ocean, like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) to foster economic growth and social progress, the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) for economic cooperation, and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) for maritime cooperation among the navies. There is not a single multilateral organisation that deals with the various non-traditional threats confronting the region.

This provides a momentous moment for India to spearhead an organisation like the International Solar Alliance (ISA) or Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) with other like-minded partners by bringing all thirty-eight countries of the region together and helping build a stable security architecture.

India’s concerns are also emerging from the chequebook diplomacy of China in India’s maritime and continental neighbours. There is no doubt that the Indian Ocean is surrounded by countries that are developing or underdeveloped, and hence they need infrastructural development. But the question is, ‘development at what cost?’ Chinese aid is opaque, does not follow good governance reforms, leads to environmental destruction, and, above all, is exorbitant, thus leading to the vicious cycle of debt.[7] Many of the projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), like the Karachi Circular Railway and Ml-1, the railway line between Karachi and Peshawar, have been stalled due to delays in the return on investments.[8] Beijing has also been accused of overcharging Islamabad by US $3 billion in two CPEC power plants, in addition to the signing of fraudulent deals to evade taxes.[9]

Due to the unsustainable lending practices of China in India’s vicinity, countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives are neck-deep in Chinese debt today. This has led to Beijing gaining strategic space in India’s vicinity. China’s unviable projects in Sri Lanka, like Nelum Kuluna, the tallest building in South Asia, which is nearly empty, and the airport, which has had no scheduled flight since 2018, are reflections of its projects falling apart in Colombo.[10]

Pakistan is the largest debtor to China with US $77.3 billion, with Sri Lanka being the second largest in South Asia with US $6.8 billion.[11] Such a huge amount of dues not only leaves the recipient country’s economy vulnerable but also has the ability to put the growth of the entire region at risk. Especially in today’s interconnected era, any instability in one nation has a ripple effect on the others. This can be very well seen in the current economic crisis in Pakistan, as well as Sri Lanka. To help Sri Lanka tie over the economic crisis, India went out of its way and gave the US $3.8 billion in economic assistance.[12] This provides the right set of circumstances for India to leverage the momentum in its favour due to its respect for sovereignty and its beholding of strategic autonomy even in difficult times. This positions India well to emerge as a preferred regional partner.

As India occupies 40 percent of the strategic waters of the Indian Ocean, it must leverage the geographical and strategic considerations of the same. With the shift in India’s role from that of a mere balancer to that of a leader in the region, it needs to pull all the strings together. It will require New Delhi to use its active diplomacy, information dominance, military cooperation, and economic engagements in the region to bring all the players together. India must not lose this strategic space in its home grounds, as it continues to play a larger global role.

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Notes:-

[1] “6^th Indian Ocean Conference 2023”, You Tube Video, 1:20:58, Ministry of External Affairs, India, May 12, 2023, posted by “Ministry of External Affairs, India”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ob4QJcqsP2I&t=2123s. Accessed on May 24, 2023.

[2] Ibid.

[3] “Reliance Jio’s Undersea Cable System to Land in Maldives”, Mint, February 21, 2022, https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/reliance-jio-s-undersea-cable-system-to-connect-maldives-directly-to-india-singapore-11645423976178.html. Accessed on May 24, 2023.

[4] Pranav Dixit, “Adani Group’s Latest Power Plant in Jharkhand to Lower Bangladesh’s Electricity Prices”, Business Today, April 09, 2023, https://www.businesstoday.in/industry/energy/story/adani-groups-latest-power-plant-in-jharkhand-to-bring-down-electricity-prices-in-bangladesh-376656-2023-04-09. Accessed on May 25, 2023.

[5] Meera Srinivansan, “Sri Lanka Gives Nod to $442 – Million Wind Project of Adani Group”, The Hindu, February 23, 2023. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/sri-lanka-approves-442-million-wind-power-project-of-adani-group/article66544744.ece. Accessed on May 25, 2023.

[6] “Unregulated Fishing on the High Seas of the Indian Ocean”, World Wildlife Fund, November 02, 2020, https://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?1014116/Unregulated-fishing-on-the-high-seas-of-the-Indian-Ocean#:~:text=The%20Indian%20Ocean%20is%20home,being%20fished%20beyond%20sustainable%20limits. Accessed on May 29, 2023.

[7] Denghua Zhang, ‘A Cautious Approach: China’s Growing Trilateral Aid Cooperation’, Pacific Affairs Series, (Australia: Australian National University Press, 2020).

[8] “Economic Partnership Between Pakistan and China Stalled: Report”, WION News, April 25, 2023. https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/economic-partnership-between-pakistan-and-china-stalled-report-585968. Accessed on May 30, 2023.

[9] Ibid.

[10] Praveen Swami, “China’s Failing White Elephant Projects in Sri Lanka Have Lessons for India, The Print, July 13, 2022. https://theprint.in/opinion/security-code/chinas-failing-white-elephant-projects-in-sri-lanka-has-lessons-for-india/1036623/. Accessed on May 30, 2023.

[11] “Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives Stand Neck-Deep in Chinese Debt: Forbes”, The Times of India, September 12, 2022. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/sri-lanka-pakistan-maldives-stand-neck-deep-in-chinese-debt-forbes/articleshow/94151865.cms. Accessed on May 30, 2023.

[12] “India provided assistance worth 3.8 billion dollars to Sri Lanka to tide over unprecedented economic crisis, says EAM S Jaishankar”, All India Radio, July 20, 2022. https://newsonair.gov.in/News?title=India-provided-assistance-worth-3.8-billion-dollars-to-Sri-Lanka-to-tide-over-unprecedented-economic-crisis%2C-says-EAM-S-Jaishankar&id=444529#:~:text=9%3A00AM-,India%20provided%20assistance%20worth%203.8%20billion%20dollars%20to%20Sri%20Lanka,crisis%2C%20says%20EAM%20S%20Jaishankar&text=External%20Affairs%20Minister%20Dr%20S,economic%20situation%20in%20Sri%20Lanka. Accessed on May 30, 2023.

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Keywords: India, Pacific Island, Papua New Guinea, Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region has been undergoing major geopolitical shifts, and nations like the US, India, and China have come up with concrete maritime strategies towards the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The developments around the island nations, that is, from Sri Lanka to the Solomon Islands, are vital amidst great power competition in the current scenario. However, island nations have not been at the forefront and have not gained much attention regarding shaping the Indo-Pacific agenda despite being influenced by them.

The Pacific Islands are a group of fourteen island nations in the South Pacific Ocean and have been of relatively low interest to the global powers. However, this has changed over time due to China’s rising power and great power rivalry in the world. India initiated its developmental engagement with these island nations decades ago, around the year 1973.^[1] The strengthening of ties between India and all fourteen island nations has great potential for India as several new markets come up for Indian exports and also for favourable access to the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of the Pacific Islands. Furthermore, the island nations benefit from India’s vast experience in fields that include low-cost renewable energy.

India’s involvement with these island nations widely aligns with PM Narendra Modi’s Act-East policy, wherein India focuses on fostering relationships through developmental aid and embrace the South-South cooperation. As an extension to the Act-East Policy, India established the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) and its inaugural meeting was held in Fiji in 2014.^[2] The second meeting of the FIPIC was held in 2015 in India, where the focus was on promoting the development and well-being of the people. The third (FIPIC) summit was held in Papua New Guinea in May 2023, wherein PM Narendra Modi engaged in several talks with leaders from the Pacific Island nations.^[3] India thus believes that it is a reliable partner of the Pacific Island nations, and it is vital to bolster their cooperation to secure the Indo-Pacific region.

Indian PM’s Visit to Papua New Guinea

PM Modi was welcomed to Papua New Guinea by Prime Minister James Marape. In a very warm and respectful gesture, PM Marape touched PM Modi’s feet. This was indicative of the prospect of intensifying relations between the two nations. During this visit, India launched a comprehensive initiative aimed at improving India’s collaboration with the countries in the Pacific region. These initiatives included development projects, healthcare facilities, solar projects, and the setting up of yoga centres. Moreover, both nations aim at collaborating on several community-building projects, which include revamping schools and their libraries and colleges, improving IT infrastructure in educational institutions, and making access to digital libraries easier.

India has been keen on reaching out to the South Pacific due to its location, which is at the crossroads of significant maritime trade routes and is also vital to the Indo-Pacific strategy. The competition for resources in the South Pacific is going to be critical over time. Therefore, it is pertinent for the Pacific island nations to be included in working towards securing a secure Indo-Pacific region. 

China and the US factor

China has been active in the Pacific island region since 2006, and PM Modi tried to countervail China’s involvement in the region by launching the FIPIC. India attempted to indirectly lash out at China by claiming that during the pandemic, it was India that helped and provided vaccines in large numbers to these island nations. Under India’s Vaccine Maitri Initiative, India provided around 1 lakh vaccines to Fiji in 2021 and around 1.32 lakh vaccines to Papua New Guinea.^[4]

The US has also been attempting to maintain a prominent position in the South Pacific for a long time. However, from 2006 onwards, Chinese involvement in the region increased manifold, and from 2006 to 2017, China provided approximately US $1.5 billion in grants and loans to the Pacific island countries. China’s activities in the region attempt to increase its security presence, further prevent the region’s diplomatic support for Taiwan, and exploit the natural resources of these nations. China also signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands in 2022, which could perhaps be used for establishing a Chinese base in the region. Due to China’s rampant pressure, the Solomon Islands cut off their ties with Taiwan and recognised China. China is also trying to overtake the influence of the US in the region by unlawfully bribing elites in island nations and intruding in their domestic politics.

The US involvement in the region is linked to the Compact of Free Association (COFA) agreement that was signed in the 1980s.^[5] Originally signed between the US, Micronesia, and Marshall Islands, the COFA has been extended to Papua New Guinea and Palau.^[6] The US provides defence as well as economic assistance through this agreement. The US has been trying to counter China’s involvement in the region through this agreement. In May 2023, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, visited Papua New Guinea and further enhanced commitments for bilateral maritime and defence security agreements with Papua New Guinea^[7]. The US has also announced that it will provide around US $6.5 billion over 20 years through the COFA^[8]. In addition, the US is now keener on reaching out to the Pacific island nations through its allies like Australia, India, and Japan.

Way Forward

PM Modi’s visit to Papua New Guinea also coincided with the US signing the extension of COFA. China also signed its own agreement with the Solomon Islands last year, which sent signals about China increasing its foothold in the region. India and the US’ collaboration in the Pacific island nations region is vital to counter China’s involvement. The US can guarantee strong security for the islands, while India could prove to be a reliable development partner.

The FIPIC platform is a win-win situation for the participating countries, as it would enhance India’s role and presence in the international arena while also ensuring security and development partnerships for Pacific island nations. Furthermore, as a part of India’s Act-East policy, India plans to increase its grant aid for Pacific countries in the near future. However, China cannot be underestimated as it possesses the world’s largest navy, which is better equipped for a long-term strategic tussle. Therefore, India’s efforts should be placed in a way that proves to be long-lasting, and India should have consistent outreach strategies for its partner countries. Moreover, India needs to grow its economy in order to have a strong maritime component on its agenda. In lieu of volatility and the importance of the Indo-Pacific region, Pacific island nations, too, have gained attention from nations like Japan, Russia, and the US. India and the US are planning to jointly hold the Army Chiefs Conclave in the coming months to counter China’s assertive behaviour and its influence in the Pacific islands.

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Notes:-

[1] Dr Rani D Mullen, ‘India-Pacific Islands Brief’, Centre for Policy Research, November 2014, https://cprindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/India-Pacific-Islands_Final.pdf (Accessed on May 31, 2023)

[2] Ibid

[3] Prime Minister meets leaders of several Pacific island countries on sidelines of FIPIC summit, The Economic Times, May 22, 2023, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/prime-minister-meets-leaders-of-several-pacific-island-countries-on-sidelines-of-fipic-summit/articleshow/100412761.cms (Accessed on May 30, 2023)

[4] Sandip Kumar Mishra, ‘FIPIC and India’s Reach-out to the South Pacific’, India Times, May 24, 2023, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/fipic-and-indias-reach-out-to-the-south-pacific/?source=app&frmapp=yes (Accessed on 01 June, 2023)

[5] Patricia O’Brien, ‘The US Is Squandering Its COFA Advantage in the Pacific’, The Diplomat, February 08, 2022, https://thediplomat.com/2022/02/the-us-is-squandering-its-cofa-advantage-in-the-pacific/ (Accessed on 02 June, 2023)

[6] “US to sign pacts with Micronesia and PNG as Washington seeks to counter China in Pacific”, The Guardian, May 16, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/16/us-and-micronesia-to-renew-cofa-pact-as-washington-seeks-to-counter-china-in-pacific. Accessed on June 6, 2023.

[7] US and Papua New Guinea sign pact amid Pacific militarisation concerns, The Guardian, May 22, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/us-png-defence-security-agreement-papua-new-guinea-china-india-modi-pacific-militarisation-concerns. Accessed on June 05, 2023

[8] Ibid

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Keywords: Economic, Strategic, India, abstained, administration, J&K

Background

The Group of Twenty (G20), formed with major countries like the USA, France, China, India, Russia, Canada, and some other developing and developed nations, is the principal forum for international economic cooperation among the members and stakeholder countries. It has a mandate to shape and strengthen the global architecture and exercise the governance over key transnational economic concerns. India has been conferred the honour of presiding over the G-20 for a year commencing December 1, 2022.[1]

As a major step towards exhibiting its stand against all odds and despite manifest opposition from its proclaimed adversaries, i.e. Pakistan and China India boldly chose Srinagar as the venue for the recently conducted coveted G-20 Tourism Working Group Meeting.[2]

The Bold Decision and Its Implications 

This bold decision and the announcement of it came at a time when even the tourists have been apprehensive about travelling to the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) due to the turbulent and sporadic incidents in the recent past. In fact, it’s the first time in the past 70 years since independence that J&K has become the venue for an international event of G-20 stature.

As of now, the G-20 meeting held in J&K has conclusively focused upon five key result areas (KRAs), they are promotion of tourism, digitalization, skill development, promotion of MSMEs in expanding the commercial activity in the valley and management of the destination for all the constructive purposes. In addition, the meeting also focused upon strengthening the economic growth, preserving cultural heritage and promoting the comprehensive sustainable development in the J&K region as a whole.

India had specially invited Bangladesh, Egypt, Mauritius, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Oman, Singapore, Spain, and the UAE for this mega event. However, with China abstaining from this particular event in J&K, a few other sympathisers of China too abstained.[3]

Future Prospects

The G-20 summit has gone a long way in boosting the morale of the state administration in J&K. It offered the state administration an opportunity to reap the comprehensive benefits that are claimed to have resulted from repealing Article 370. Moreover, it has a positive impact on the tourism industry and other trade sectors in the region, besides giving Kashmir’s tourism potential a powerful international push, eventually positioning it on a global platform and bringing to the fore Kashmir’s traditional art, culture and definitely, the centuries-old Kashmiriat.

This apart, the development of infrastructure through the creation of new hospitality facilities such as hotels, restaurants and transportation facilities has positively benefitted the hospitality industry in terms of creation and improvement of infrastructure in J&K. In addition, this also includes the development of smart roads and smart public transport system, the improvement of infrastructure and services, with an overall enhancement in the quality of life for Kashmiri citizens.[4]All these developments taken together are expected to give a direct boost to the local business ecosystem by accruing the concomitant benefits.

The success of this major event also highlights thepromotion of film tourism by offering opportunities for the shooting of films to the visiting delegates. Furthermore, it also places a much desired focus on the system of single-window clearance of the connected formalities for the film crew of the attending foreign nations.

The event also demonstrated the presence of numerous corporate leaders, leading businessmen and diplomats from Middle Eastern countries who actually carried out exhaustive tours of the entire Jammu and Kashmir region, exploring investment opportunities, during the past few months preceding the G-20 meeting.

The successful culmination of this mega event would certainly go a long way in accruing rich benefits to J&K in terms of enhanced business opportunities on the government as well as non-governmental business fronts.

Through this highly ambitious event successfully organised by India, Jammu and Kashmir have got a deliberate opportunity to showcase the prospects of business, market opportunities, eco-tourism endeavours by displaying its traditional and cultural assets before the leading global entities.

The bold decision taken by the Government of India to organise an international event of such a large magnitude in a province that has till recently been through a perpetual state of turmoil, is expected to go a long way in establishing India’s credentials at the international level as a super strong nation that believes in taking calculated risks in order to safeguard its national interests.

This would also benefit J&K in many ways. This thought process stems from the fact that the decision to organise an international event like the G-20 was a confident yet premeditated action amidst militancy that has been creating havoc in J&K for a long time. Besides other things, this also showcased the professionalism of India’s security forces and intelligence agencies that through their professionalism of a very high order turned this seemingly difficult possibility into a hard reality.

Candidly speaking, the successful conduct of the G-20 event in J&K deserves to be regarded as a bold and well-calibrated decision taken by India. This has provided a golden opportunity for India to bestow global recognition on J&K, besides sending a strong message to our friendly neighbour about India’s resolve to keep itsgeostrategic environment free from any fear. In other words, it successfully aims at keeping J&K fully protected in the face of any external disturbance whatsoever.

India,through its unrelenting efforts, has come to be in a much better and stronger position to decide and steer the course of global activity. By taking the developing nations along, India is virtually proceeding in the direction of establishing itself as a fast emerging superpower. Moreover, India now has reasons to believe that the constant upward rise of its popularity amidst the multipolar world of the day is placing the nation in a much stronger position than ever before.

The takeaways of the summit are likely to be even greater in terms of expectedly enhanced inward investments and further enlargement of the business environment. It is expected to be accomplished through the enhanced confidence of the foreign investors about the safety of their investments. It is also expected to offer a greater degree of business convenience through the friendly ecosystem that India appears to have developed. All this was possible because of the meaningful interactions held among various stakeholders during thecourse of the event.

Strategically also, India stands to gain greater yield first by virtue of being one of the most developed and powerful nations that are G-20 members and also through a strong message sent to the perpetual adversaries of India by emerging as a strong nation, i.e. the new India.

In short, the successful conduct of the G-20 meeting in trouble-torn J&K sent a strong message all across that the New India not only stands tall with pride and proven capability to safeguard its national interests but is also able to accomplish its obligations in a committed manner permeated with a high degree of statesmanship.

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Notes:-

[1] “G-20 and India’s Presidency. G-20 Development Working Group (DWG) meeting to be held in Mumbai from December 13 – 16, 2022. India will host over 200 meetings in over 50 cities across 32 different work streams. G20 delegates and guests to get a glimpse of India’s rich cultural heritage and a year-long India experience. The theme of India’s G20 Presidency “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” or “One Earth · One Family · One Future” closely ties with LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment)”,Ministry of External Affairs, PIB, December 10, 2022, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1882356. Accessed on May 26, 2023

[2] Krishnan, Murali, “Why is India hosting some G20 events in Kashmir?”, DW News, April 13, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-india-hosting-some-g20-events-in-kashmir/a-65300277. Accessed on May 26, 2023

[3] Dr Prashant Prabhakar Deshpande, “Significance of holding a G-20 meeting in Kashmir”, Times of India, May 22, 2023, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/truth-lies-and-politics/significance-of-holding-a-g-20-meeting-in-kashmir/ Accessed on May 26, 2023

[4] “J-K Srinagar gets major makeover ahead of G-20 meetings”, Economic Times, May 13, 2023, https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/urban-infrastructure/j-k-srinagar-gets-major-makeover-ahead-of-g20-meetings/100198278. Accessed on May 26, 2023

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