Keywords: South Asia, President Trump, Regional Security, India-USA Relations

A most consequential transition of guard will take place in just about a month from now. On 20 January 2025, Donald Trump will take over the baton from Joe Biden to become the 47^th president of the USA. This will be more than just a matter of domestic significance for the USA since the president of the most powerful country matters to the rest of the world too. This time the interest in the change of the occupant of the White House is more than usual owing to the nature of Donald Trump and the experience with him as president. His slogan then was America First and he showed little concern for issues of international security. On matters related to climate change, he was a denier and chose to withdraw the US from the Paris agreement. On several bilateral arms control agreements with Russia too he opted for the same course. He also did not hesitate in taking steps even if these upset many relationships, including with American allies and partners.

Given this experience of his last term as president, it is not surprising that every nation is busy evaluating what it may face from the new US administration. Interestingly, most articles on the subject are using the word ‘brace’ with respect to how countries will have to deal with the new old occupant of the White House.  Nearly all agree that Trump will be unpredictable throughout his four years and will maintain a transactional approach to issues and nations. How will he deal with South Asia?

In South Asia, the relationship of most consequence to Trump will be that with India.  Fortunately, the fundamentals of India’s relationship with the USA are strong. Both have convergent security concerns, especially from an assertive and aggressive China. These are expected to keep President Trump suitably engaged in the Indo-Pacific. In fact, it may be recalled that some of the elements of institutionalization of US-India ties took place under the previous Trump administration. Today, the bilateral relationship is built on the bedrock of 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, India’s status as a Major Defense Partner, four foundational agreements, and arrangements that enable real-time intelligence sharing in the Indo-Pacific. President Trump is unlikely to disturb these.

Of course, there is apprehension that the economic relations might be rocked if President Trump decides to raise tariffs. But, the overall American interest in India is unlikely to faze given its market size and value, as also the position, reach and influence of the Indian diaspora in the US. To add to this is the relatively good relations between President Trump and PM Modi. Both seem to know how to deal with one another. They are on terms good enough and understand the other’s relevance and importance enough to manage a cordial working relationship.

As regards Pakistan, Trump did not have a pleasant relationship with the country in the last term, and there is little reason for him to want to invest too much time, attention or resources to building that relationship. For now, the strategic location of Pakistan that has always been of importance for Washington appears to be of little salience. Moreover, Pakistan’s close relations with China could be an irritant for the Trump administration. Unless, in a masterstroke, as it happened in 1971, Pakistan is able to get China to deliver something to Trump that matters to him. Pakistan could increase its relevance for the Trump administration if, for example, it could persuade China, on behalf of USA, to join it on the table for arms control. Keen as Islamabad is to mend its relations with Washington, it will have to look for ways to catch positive attention of the Trump administration.

Amongst the other South Asian nations, most likely Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives would be of more interest to the new administration, especially from the security from China point of view. In the past too, these were seen as important for their potential for offering logistics in case of military operations against China. The same logic will operate even now. But, it is likely that Trump will let India take the lead on economic and security connections within the region.

Issues of indirect impact on the region

The manner in which the incoming Trump administration handles three issues could have positive or negative implications for the region. The first of these would be whether President Trump is able to achieve his expressed desire of finding a resolution for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Any progress on this front will be good for India since US involvement in Europe distracts it from handling the China threat. It also tends to push Moscow closer to Beijing and strengthens the likelihood of an alliance between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Secondly, any initiative that President Trump may take for a fresh re-engagement with DPRK that may enable securing a freeze on further nuclear and missile capability build-up under international inspections, would help address the risk of illicit proliferation of nuclear material, equipment or technology to non-state or other state actors.  This is a security concern for South Asia which is infested with terror organisations and religious fundamentalism besides expanding nuclear power programmes.

Lastly, if Trump could somehow bring China into some sort of nuclear arms control, either bilaterally with USA or at a more multilateral level, it would be a benign development for India and the region since it would avert the risk of a nuclear arms race, and its accompanying dangers.

South Asia needs to find its own coherence

It is likely that Trump will treat South Asia much like as he did in the past. Each nation in the region will try to find its own equation with the new administration.  Memories of his behaviour in the last administration will help nations be better prepared to handle his mercurial tendencies. President Trump, meanwhile, can be expected to judge the relevance of each country for its economic and security value.

The president of USA is always an important figure for all regions of the world. But for a region like South Asia which is so united by geography, history, culture and common regional and global concerns such as those of climate change and terrorism, it would be best to find its own regional coherence. Irrespective of their ties with the US, South Asian countries must build their own relationships and linkages to benefit the peoples of their region.

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(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Centre for Air Power Studies [CAPS])

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Keywords: Hypersonic Missile, HGC, HCM, HSTDV, DRDO, Atmanirbharta.

The successful flight test of India’s first long-range hypersonic missile is a great success for India. The trial was conducted by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) on Dr APJ Abdul Kalam Island, off the coast of Odisha, in the late evening of November 16, 2024. This hypersonic missile is designed to carry various cargoes for the Armed Forces at a distance greater than 1,500 km.[1] This flight trial of India’s first long-range hypersonic missile by the DRDO is a major milestone for India’s strategic vision. This achievement places India in a select group of nations possessing such advanced military technology.[2]

Significance

Cruise hypersonic missiles travel at speeds over five times the speed of sound in the stratosphere, about 6200 km per hour. This is comparable to an intercontinental ballistic missile. The arrangement of a hypersonic glide vehicle allows it to manoeuvre during flight, either towards the target or to avoid a defence shield. Such missile manoeuvres make them challenging to the adversary’s detection and interception capabilities.

In recent years, there has been a growing emphasis on development of the hypersonic missiles. Major powers such as the United States, China and Russia are pursuing the development of advanced hypersonic missile systems designed to effectively penetrate the opponent’s heavily fortified targets. The recent deployment and use of hypersonic missiles by Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has sparked interest in this new technology. At the same time, there are concerns about the effectiveness of such missiles after Ukraine said it had shot down several of Russia’s Kinzhal missiles.[3]

Indian Impetus to Hypersonic Technology

Hypersonic technology refers to projectiles that travel at speeds in excess of five Mach. Its launch system consists of “Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGV)” and “Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCM)” systems. An HGV is a glide vehicle, initially propelled by a rocket to reach the upper atmosphere. Once it re-enters Earth’s atmosphere, it glides the rest of the way towards its destination.[4]

India has been working on the development of hypersonic missiles for the past few years. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, in a DRDO-organised seminar in mid-December 2021, had asked scientists to work towards developing hypersonic missile technology. The DRDO has made tireless and sincere efforts to develop hypersonic technology, beginning with the Hypersonic Technology Demonstration Vehicle (HSTDV) project. This project deals with hypersonic air-breathing scramjet technology.[5]

With the flight test of the HSTDV conducted at 1103 hours on September 7, 2020, from the Dr APJ Abdul Kalam Launch Complex at Wheeler Island, off the coast of Odisha, the DRDO was able to successfully demonstrate the hypersonic air-breathing scramjet technology.[6]

A tried and tested solid rocket engine was used to launch the hypersonic cruise vehicle. This motor was able to propel the vehicle to an elevation of 30 kilometres, where the aerodynamic heat shields were split at a hypersonic speed. There was a planned separation between the launch vehicle and the cruise vehicle, and the air intake was opened as expected.

For about 20 seconds, hypersonic combustion was sustained and the cruise vehicle proceeded along its designated flight path at a velocity six times that of sound, or two Kilometers per second. Specific events, such as the fuel injection and auto-ignition of the scramjet, were critical demonstrations of the maturity of the technological system. The scramjet engine operated in accordance with established protocols.[7]

Implications on India’s Strategic Vision

Technological Advancement: India is deeply interested in developing and maturing indigenous hypersonic technology, which has given impetus to hypersonic capabilities.

The development of hypersonic missile technology demonstrates India’s technological prowess and its ability to innovate in cutting-edge fields.[8]

Enhanced Military Capability: Hypersonic missiles are extremely difficult to intercept due to their high speed and manoeuvrability. In a major boost to its military prowess, India has successfully flight-tested a long-range hypersonic missile off the coast of Odisha, an achievement that has put the country in a select group of nations having the weapon that can strike with extreme speed and evade most air defence systems.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh described the missile test on Saturday under the country’s first long-range hypersonic mission as a “stupendous” achievement and a “historic moment”. This significantly enhances India’s military capabilities, making it a formidable force in the region.[9]

Strategic Deterrence: The possession of hypersonic missiles gives India a powerful tool for strategic deterrence, as potential adversaries would need to consider the devastating consequences of such a weapon.

Strengthening India’s Position:  This achievement solidifies India’s position to enhance its military strength and carve out a strategic place in South Asia and globally.

Balancing Regional Power Dynamics: This achievement reasserts India’s position as a regional and global military power. India can now exert its power more confidently and meet future contingencies with more confidence.

Promoting India’s “Make in India” Initiative: The hypersonic missile test thus indicates India’s upward trajectory in its military-industrial complex. The indigenous development of this missile reinforces India’s commitment to self-reliance in defence technology, reducing its dependence on foreign suppliers. It encourages the growth of investment in indigenous research and development under the ‘Make in India’ programme, which creates optimism about aspiring India’s future defence system.

Enhancing International Partnerships: The recent advancements made by India in hypersonic missile technology could lead the country to cooperate with other countries in the area of military technology and thus introduce greater safety for the world.

Escalation of New Arms Race

Presently, all the major powers, including France, Germany, Australia, Japan, Iran and Israel, are also involved in the race for the development of hypersonic missile systems. Number of states are developing hypersonic missiles, which have become a threat that brings along an arms race. The deployment of these missiles potentially changes the balance of power and affects the strategic balance. For instance, these missiles reach their stipulated targets in very short time to surprise the enemy. Therefore, an effort to promote the non-proliferation of hypersonic missiles merits consideration by the world. Though the defence technology and production know-how of hypersonic missiles today are limited to a few selected states only, it will be challenging to limit its control.

Conclusion

The successful flight trial of the long-range hypersonic missile marks a significant step forward in India’s strategic objectives. It enhances India’s military capabilities, strengthens its deterrence posture, and positions India as a global leader in advanced technology. Nevertheless, dedicated R&D efforts are required to advance the missile systems by enhancing their capabilities as well as addressing their vulnerabilities.

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Notes

[1] “DRDO carries out successful flight-trial of India’s first long-range hypersonic missile off the Odisha coast”, PIB, November 17, 2024, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2073994#:~: text=This% 20missile%20has%20been%20indigenously,various%20other%20DRDO%20laboratories%20and. Accessed on November 17, 2024.

[2] “DRDO Conducts Historic Flight Trial of long range Hypersonic Missile”, The Times of India, November 17, 2024, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/drdo-conducts-historic-flight-trial-of-long- range-hypersonic-missile/articleshow/115376058.cms#:~:text=This%20is%20a%20historic%20moment,of%20such%20critical%20and%20advanced. Accessed on November 17, 2024.

[3] Ahmed Ali, “Global Arms Race for Hypersonic Missiles must be halted”, Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), October 4, 2023, https://thesvi.org/as-russia-china-and-the-us-pursue-hypersonic-missiles-a-global-non-proliferation-treaty-is-needed/. Accessed on November 17, 2024.

[4] Mahnoor Saghir, “India’s Hypersonic Ambitions and it’s Ratifications for Regional Strategic Stability”, The Global Defense Insight, May 19, 2024, https://defensetalks.com/indias-hypersonic-ambitions-and-its-ratifications-for-regional-strategic-stability/. Accessed on November 20, 2024.

[5] Dr DK Pandey, “Hypersonic Missiles With Heat-Seeking Technology”, Chankya Forum, April 5, 2023, https://chanakyaforum.com/hypersonic-missiles-with-heat-seeking-technology/. Accessed on November 19, 2024.

[6] “DRDO successfully flight tests Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle”, PIB, September 7, 2020, https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1651956. Accessed on November 17, 2024.

[7] Ibid.

[8] Dipti Ravi Sharma, “Tracking the Advancement of India’s Hypersonic Ambitions”, CLAWS, July 16, 2024, https://www.claws.in/tracking-the-advancement-of-indias-hypersonic-ambitions/#:~:text=The%20 achievement%20demonstrates%20that%20India,in%2Ddepth%20knowledge%20of%20precision. Accessed on November 17, 2024.

[9] “India successfully tests long-range hypersonic missile in historic trial”, The Business Standard, November 17 2024, https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/india-successfully-tests-long-range-hypersonic-missile-in-historic-trial-124111700079_1.html. Accessed on November 17, 2024.

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Keywords: NRI, Technical Talent, migration, technology

In 1983, Morris Chang, a Chinese engineer who had worked at Texas Instruments, USA, for over two decades, was passed over for promotion. He quit. After two years of working in different places, he received a call from Mr K T Li, a minister in Taiwan, inviting Morris to Taiwan to work in the semiconductor industry. He accepted the invitation and founded Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in 1987.^[1] This single decision altered the entire semiconductor industry landscape. Today, TSMC produces more than 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced chips^[2] – a huge progress for a country with almost negligible technical background when it began.

A 2008 study by RAND compared the education systems of China and India. It found that India outperformed China in higher education, and China outperformed India in primary and secondary education. This was largely due to the Indian government’s greater focus on and funding for higher education institutes like the IITs, with limited emphasis on lower levels since independence. The study also found that this capacity of higher education without a supporting technological infrastructure created human capital that could not be absorbed within the country.  This caused high-skilled emigration.^[3] A paper published in 2023 states that 67 per cent of the top 100 JEE rank holders and 36 per cent of the top 1,000 ranks have migrated.^[4] Further, a popular study estimated the fiscal impact of this high-skilled migration to be a net loss of 0.5 per cent^[5] of the Gross National Income of India after compensating for remittances and FDI. The lack of high-quality human capital is a leading cause of the lack of progress in the country. A lot of sustained hard work is required to build the infrastructure. However, in exceptional circumstances, some short routes to success do spring up purely by chance.

A lot of modern technologies emerged during the Second World War. Jet aircraft, missiles, and glide bombs owe their origin to Germany. After Germany surrendered in 1945, Operation Paperclip was launched by the US.^[6] It was designed to coerce German scientists and engineers to move and work in the US. The engineering and scientific achievements that resulted from this operation are exemplary. To quote one example, US missions to the moon were largely attributed to Von Braun, a German scientist. About 120 Germans from this operation worked on the moon mission. The US benefitted immensely from this sudden influx of scientific talent. The key takeaway is that the US realised the existence of this opportunity at the right time. It developed the right policies at the highest level of government and made the best use of the situation. India also benefitted from this mass exodus of German engineers. Dr Kurt Tank and his team were invited by the Prime Minister to join HAL.[7] They went on to develop the HF-24 Marut, the first operational jet fighter designed and developed in Asia.

In November 2024, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is laying off 5 per cent of its workforce.^[8] This is the second lay-off this year after an 8 per cent reduction in February.^[9] Boeing is likely to lay off 10 per cent of its workforce too, amounting to 17,000 people.^[10] Strong anti-immigration sentiments are also on the rise globally. Therefore, it would be reasonable to expect that a lot of highly qualified and experienced Indians in the aerospace industry are likely to become unemployed soon. These are people who have work experience on the factory floors with insight into the latest technology and modern industrial practices. These lay-offs could trigger a moment of homesickness. Decisions to relocate to another foreign country while already living abroad are challenging and would require careful thought and deliberation. Home is a safe bet in times of uncertainty. Thus, there is a brief period where India, with its right approach, can absorb this large influx of talent before they are lured away by other countries. Countries like Germany and Japan, with ageing populations, have already initiated measures to absorb this talent. Recently, Germany increased the number of annual visas for skilled Indian workers from 20,000 to 90,000.^[11] Thus, while a window of opportunity exists, it is also shutting soon.

To exploit this opportunity, the first step is to identify and reach out to top-quality talent. The second is to provide adequate freedom to build the desired capabilities. This selective approach with wide leeway could attract criticism as lacking fairness. The argument is valid but must be temporarily ignored in the national interest. The results from good talent spotting will speak for itself in the future. In the past, people like Dr Homi Bhabha and Dr Vikram Sarabhai enjoyed this freedom. The results they produced in atomic energy and space are evident. Lateral entry into government departments must not be attempted as the skillset required and available is technical and not managerial. Instead, new entities devoid of hierarchy and bureaucratic procedures need to be imagined. One option is for the Indian Armed Forces to identify such people and offer them honorary ranks. They can be employed to build and run military innovation facilities. These facilities can develop cutting-edge products that compete with those of DRDO, HAL, the private sector and international counterparts. Alternatively, these people can also create the necessary technical infrastructure with abundant government backing. Who else would know the deficiencies better than the ones who moved abroad for a lack of them? On the question of finance, a NASA study estimated the cost of constructing the Falcon 9 rocket using the traditional approach at 4 billion USD – SpaceX did it at just 390 million.[12] Thus, the issue is not money but ideas.

Morris Chang turned around the fate of the Taiwanese industry. Welcoming back Indians who went abroad is nothing new. Mahatma Gandhi returned to India after 21 years in South Africa and led India to freedom. It is the right time to roll out the Red Carpet. Any delay would result in a costly lost opportunity.

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Notes

^[1] Miller, Chris, Chip war: The fight for the world’s most critical technology (Simon and Schuster, 2022), Pp 163-169.

^[2] Ibid.

^[3] Goldman, Charles A., Krishna B. Kumar, and Ying Liu, “Education and the Asian Surge: A Comparison of the Education Systems in India and China. Occasional Paper,” RAND Corporation, 2008.

^[4] Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Ina Ganguli, and Patrick Gaulé, “Top talent, elite colleges, and migration: Evidence from the Indian Institutes of Technology,” Journal of Development Economics164 (2023): 103120.

^[5] Desai, Mihir A. et al., “The fiscal impact of high-skilled emigration: Flows of Indians to the US,” Journal of Development Economics 88.1 (2009): 32-44.

^[6]Jacobsen, Annie, Operation Paperclip: The secret intelligence program that brought Nazi scientists to America (Hachette UK, 2014), p. 575, https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Review-Operation-Paperclip.pdf. Accessed on November 13, 2024. [Quoted in Studies in Intelligence Vol 58, No. 3 (Extracts, September 2014)]

[7] Manisha Mondal, “What happened when Nehru and a former Nazi Germany engineer built first & only India made operational combat jet,” The Print, September 24, 2018, https://theprint.in/defence/when-nehru-and-nazi-germany-engineer-built-first-india-made-operational-combat-fighter/123749/. Accessed on November 20, 2024.

^[8] NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, “JPL Workforce Update,” https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/jpl-workforce-update_-/. Accessed on November 14, 2024.

^[9] Jason Wells, “NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory lays off another 5 percent of workforce,” MSN, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-jet-propulsion-laboratory-lays-off-another-5-percent-of-workforce/ar-AA1tY2Ux. Accessed on November 14, 2024.

^[10]  Daniel Catchpole and Allison Lampert, “Boeing to lay off over 2,500 workers in US as part of sweeping cuts,” Reuters, November 19, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-lay-off-nearly-2200-workers-washington-state-warn-notice-shows-2024-11-18/. Accessed on November 19, 2024.

^[11] “Germany increases visa quota for skilled Indian workers to 90,000 from just 20,000 earlier,” Hindustan Times, November 14, 2024, https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/germany-increases-visa-quota-for-indian-skilled-workers-to-90-000-from-just-20-000-earlier-101729908834534.html. Accessed on November 19, 2024.

[12] Zapata, Edgar, “An assessment of cost improvements in the NASA COTS-CRS program and implications for future NASA missions,” AIAA Space 2017 Conference, No. KSC-E-DAA-TN44427, 2017.

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Keywords: Airshow, Zhuhai, Aerospace, China Space, Next-Gen 

The much-awaited air show in China kicked off at Zhuhai on November 12, 2024. This biennial aerospace trade expo has been held in Zhuhai, China, since 1996. It is an occasion that reveals China’s rapidly expanding aerospace technology prowess. The Zhuhai Air Show, also called the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition, is the largest air show in China. This year’s exhibition and air display was held from November 12, 2024, to November 17, 2024.[1]

China showcased its most advanced aviation, aerospace, and space technologies in this year’s exhibition, highlighting its growing military aerospace capabilities. Amongst other aerospace technologies on display, the key attractions of its space technology included:

(a)  A model of a cargo space shuttle or a commercial uncrewed spaceplane.

(b)  A model of a next-gen fighter, which is an ‘integrated space-air fighter.’

(c)  A reusable version of its Long March 9 rocket.

Spaceplane

The model of China’s first commercial uncrewed spaceplane, which is also being called a cargo space shuttle, was displayed by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, Ltd (AVIC), a state-owned aerospace company. A media release of AVIC revealed that it was being developed to deliver cargo to China’s space station. According to the China Daily, the spacecraft brings “a low-cost reusable cargo shuttle solution with Chinese characteristics to space exploration”. The China Daily also reported that China’s Manned Space Agency awarded AVIC a contract for engineering flight verification of the spaceplane on October 29, 2024.[2]

The shuttle is named Haloong-1 or Sky Dragon.[3] It will ferry logistical supplies back and forth to the Tiangong Space Station, which is already in orbit. The design of the spaceplane is said to be unique, allowing it relatively high manoeuvrability within the atmosphere and permitting more re-entry opportunities. The spaceplane will have to be launched in a conventional manner on a rocket. In an interview with the Global Times, the chief designer Fang Yuanpeng mentioned that the ‘rear of the Haoloong-1 shuttle will dock with the Tiangong Space station’. The space station crew will be able to access the shuttle’s cargo bay to pick up and store goods. The return to earth on completion of the mission will be a re-entry and glide followed by a conventional landing on a runway. The shuttle is said to be 10 metres long and 8 metres wide with a 1.8-tonne cargo capacity. Its unique feature is its folding wings and solar arrays. Chinese state officials described the Haoloong-1 as a “revolutionary reusable spacecraft poised to transform space travel and drastically cut the cost of transporting cargo to China’s space station”. Presently, China sends cargo to its space station on the Tianzhou spacecraft. Tianzhou is a one-way cargo shuttle that burns up on re-entry into the atmosphere. The space shuttle on display has reached an engineering development phase, and a prototype is expected soon, as stated by the chief designer.[4]

Integrated Space-Air Fighter

A concept model of a next-gen fighter was on display at the air show. It is also being described as an ‘integrated space-air fighter’, or the ‘Baidi’, translated as ‘White Emperor’. As for the spaceplane, this next-gen fighter is also a project from the AVIC. The design envisions an ability to fly at supersonic speeds at high altitudes, including above the Earth’s atmosphere, to operate in space and similarly return through the atmosphere, thus justifying its designation as an ‘integrated space-air fighter. The fighter plane will have an enlarged internal weapons bay to accommodate heavy air-to-ground armament,  as stated on the display board adjacent to the model.[5]

Though the Baidi is being touted as an integrated space-air fighter, it may actually be a representation of China’s sixth-generation fighter under development. The global specifications for a sixth-generation fighter remain undefined. However, it is expected to feature the capabilities of supersonic flight, all-aspect stealth and directed-energy weapons, such as laser and high-powered microwave weapons.[vi] The ability to operate in orbital space or sub-orbital space would require a hybrid or variable cycle engine to produce the thrust required to reach the orbital space. Moreover, the airframe would be required to withstand high velocities. The concept of a space-air fighter seems far-fetched technologically. However, it is possible that the Chinese next-gen fighter would be able to operate in the near space region.

Reusable Rocket

China’s space agency unveiled a fully reusable design for its Long March-9 rocket booster stage. This was once again a model displayed for a two-stage reusable heavy-lift rocket, which is being developed by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT).[7] The recovery method is similar to the Falcon-9 booster recovery by SpaceX, a US space behemoth.  A representative of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), which oversees the activities of CALT, said its rocket could carry 100 tonnes to low-earth orbit and up to 50 tonnes to lunar-transfer orbit. The Long March 9 will be developed as a two-stage rocket, and both stages will eventually be fully reusable.[8]

The reusability is expected to significantly lower the launch costs while showcasing the superiority of Chinese space technology. Moreover, the payload capacity will facilitate trans-lunar missions and the expansion of China’s space station, Tiangong.

Conclusion

The Zhuhai Air Show has highlighted China’s aerospace ambitions as it modernises its military. Even though the space technology displayed at the air show was only concept designs and models, it did convey the Chinese vision to be a global leader in space. It shows the Chinese intent for trans-lunar and interplanetary missions, which is captured in its long-term goals for space. The design of highly manoeuvrable platforms also allows China to leverage space for military objectives. With these developments, China is inching closer to the US in aerospace technologies. India needs to take note and accelerate its efforts in indigenisation and research and development in the field of aerospace.

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Notes

[1] ‘China shows off military technology at Zhuhai Air Show’, ANI, November 12, 2024, at

https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/china-shows-off-military-technology-at-zhuhai-air-show20241112150726/, accessed on November 14, 2024.

[2] Sophie Yu and David Kirton, “Zhuhai air show opens with orders for COMAC and a glimpse of a future spaceplane”, Reuters, November 12, 2024, at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/zhuhai-air-show-opens-with-orders-comac-glimpse-future-spaceplane-2024-11-12/, accessed on November 14, 2024.

[3] Andrew Curran, “China Unveils Future Commercial Uncrewed Space Shuttle at Air Show”, Space and Defense, November 14, 2024, at https://spaceanddefense.io/china-unveils-future-commercial-uncrewed-space-shuttle-at-air-show/, accessed on November 14, 2024.

[4] Ibid.

[5] Enoch Wong, “China’s Zhuhai air show to feature vision for next-generation warplanes”, South China Morning Post, November 11, 2024, at https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3286103/chinas-zhuhai-air-show-feature-vision-next-generation-warplanes?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article, accessed on November 14, 2024.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Andrew Jones, “China unveils fully reusable Starship-like rocket concept”, Space News, November 14, 2024, at https://spacenews.com/china-unveils-fully-reusable-starship-like-rocket-concept/, accessed on November 18, 2024.

[8] Gerry Duyle, “Reusable Long March 9 design on display at Zhuhai air show”, Reuters, November 15, 2024, at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/reusable-long-march-9-rocket-design-display-zhuhai-air-show-2024-11-15/, accessed on November 17, 2024.

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Author: Sanaa Alvira, Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies

Keywords: UN General Assembly, Nuclear War, Humanitarian Impact, India’s Abstention

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Keywords: North Korea, Hwasong-19, ICBM, the US

The year 2024 has been an eventful one for the Korean Peninsula. The relations between North and South Korea hit rock bottom; North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, categorically stated that “he would no longer seek reconciliation and reunification with South Korea.”[1] North Korea also tested its ballistic missiles of various categories at least 12 times. The latest test, which occurred[2] on October 30, 2024, has now revealed North Korea’s increasing capabilities in the domain of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM).

What was the Test about?

On October 30, 2024, it was reported that North Korea had launched a new ICBM. Officials in South Korea and Japan confirmed the test. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was present during the test. The official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that “The test-fire is an appropriate military action that fully meets the purpose of informing the rivals, who have intentionally escalated the regional situation and posed a threat to the security of our Republic recently, of our counteraction will, and it also constitutes an indispensable process in the course of constantly developing our state’s strategic attack forces.”[3] This, however, was not the first ICBM test conducted by North Korea, but a close analysis reveals something new about this test regarding its flight time and data on the re-entry capabilities of a long-range warhead.

According to Japan’s Defence Minister, the North Korean missile, which went down about 300km west of Japan’s Okushiri Island, had the longest flying time of 86 minutes. The missile covered approximately 1,000 km with a maximum altitude of more than 7,000 km. In comparison, the previous ICBM test, a solid-fueled Hwasong-18 missile conducted by North Korea in July 2023, recorded a flight time of 74 minutes.[4] A longer fly time in a “lofted trajectory” would help North Korea gather data on challenges a long-range warhead faces when it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere. When an ICBM re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere, it experiences intense heat, requiring structural material to overcome the thermal challenge, particularly when receiving signals for communications and targeting. This brings us to the question of what new missile North Korea tested on October 30, 2024. According to the KCNA, this was the first-ever test of Hwasong-19 ICBM.[5]

            The following table illustrates North Korea’s current ICBM capabilities:

The table has been created by the author based on data from https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/. Accessed on November 1, 2024.

The Hwasong-19 will be a road-mobile, and according to one report, the missile will be deployed alongside the Hwasong-18.[6]

Why the Test?

The test has multiple underlying reasons, both political and strategic. North Korea is building a more resilient land and sea-based deterrent capability. In 2021, Kim Jong-un referred to vital strategic goals for enhancing North Korea’s nuclear weapon programme. Accordingly, Kim stated several goals, which included:

1. 1. Producing super-sized nuclear warheads

   2. Producing smaller and lighter nuclear weapons for tactical uses

   3. Improving precision strike and range capabilities

   4. Introducing hypersonic gliding flight warheads

   5. Developing solid-fuel engine-propelled intercontinental, underwater, and ground  ballistic rockets

   6. Introducing a nuclear-powered submarine and an underwater-launch nuclear strategic weapon.[7]

The Hwasong-19 test is a direct outcome of Kim’s 2021 speech and mainly fulfills the agenda of having more than one solid-fuel engine-propelled ICBM. More importantly, as Ankit Panda has explained, the “missile continues to underwrite the growing credibility of North Korea’s strategic deterrent capabilities.”[8]

On the political front, it was conducted right before the November 5, 2024, US presidential election. It seems that North Korea wanted to test the most critical weapon systems before the new administration took over in the US. While it may or may not influence how the new President of the United States deals with North Korea, the test might provide a political edge for North Korea if and when dialogue with the US restarts. Other reasons might pertain to deflecting attention from a statement by South Korea’s military agency, which said, “North Korea has likely completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test.”[9] The political motivations might also involve North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia to participate in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the potential for backlash from the West.[10]

The 2022 Law on DPRK’s Policy on Nuclear Forces also reflects why North Korea is building such huge ICBMs. According to the 2022 Policy Number 9, the DPRK “shall constantly assess outside nuclear threats and the change in the posture of international nuclear forces and correspondingly upgrade and beef up its nuclear forces in a qualitative and quantitative way in response to it.”[11] North Korea has been taking stock of what is happening in the name of extended deterrence commitment between the US and South Korea. The third meeting of the ‘Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG)’[12] and the fifth meeting of the ‘Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG)’[13] have been referred to by North Korea as a “dangerous war scenario.”[14] In response to the worsening situation, South Korea has also taken measures such as the “Kill Chain” plan, which seeks to pursue a strategy of conventional counterforce “focused on assertive strikes… removing the North’s senior leadership.”[15]

Conclusion

The Hwasong-19 test points to the worsening situation in the Korean Peninsula. However, North Korea would require more tests of its newest ICBM to ascertain that it can safely carry nuclear warheads as the missile re-enters Earth’s atmosphere. More importantly, a solid-fueled road-mobile missile would help Pyongyang disperse the missile system quickly and complicate adversary strikes. As North Korea seeks to test and eventually deploy ballistic missiles of all categories, a growing risk of escalation requires all the parties involved to start an unconditional dialogue, paving the way for more concrete mutual trust-building measures in the near future.

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Notes

[1] “Kim Jong Un tells army to ‘annihilate’ South Korea, US if provoked,” Al Jazeera, January 1, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/1/kim-jong-un-tells-army-to-annihilate-south-korea-us-if-provoked. Accessed on November 2, 2024.

[2] “North Korea confirms launch of ICBM in longest-ever ballistic missile test,” Al Jazeera, October 30, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/30/north-korea-launches-ballistic-missile-towards-the-sea-south-korea-says. Accessed on November 2, 2024.

[3] “ICBM test-fire conducted in DPRK,” KCNA Watch, October 31, 2024, https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1730365407-293744672/icbm-test-fire-conducted-in-dprk/. Accessed on November 2, 2024.

[4] Jesse Johnson, “North Korea fires off ICBM-class missile ahead of Kishida-Yoon meeting,” The Japan Times, July 12, 2023, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/07/12/national/north-korea-missile-launch-july-12/. Accessed on November 2, 2024.

[5] “Press Statement of Spokesperson for DPRK Foreign Ministry,” KCNA Watch, November 2, 2024, https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1730547119-360845338/press-statement-of-spokesperson-for-dprk-foreign-ministry/. Accessed on November 3, 2024.

[6] “North Korea releases images of Hwasong-19 missile launch,” ABC News, November 1, 2024, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-01/north-korea-releases-hwasong19-missile-launch-images/104551852. Accessed on November 3, 2024.

[7] “On Report Made by Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un at 8th Congress of WPK,” KCNA Watch, January 9, 2021, https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1610155111-665078257/on-report-made-by-supreme-leader-kim-jong-un-at-8th-congress-of-wpk/. Accessed on November 4, 2024.

[8] “North Korea releases images of Hwasong-19 missile launch,” ABC News, November 1, 2024,  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-01/north-korea-releases-hwasong19-missile-launch-images/104551852. Accessed on November 3, 2024.

[9] Kim Tong-Hyung, “South Korean military says the North appears poised to conduct nuclear and ICBM tests,” ABC News, October 30, 2024, https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-korean-military-north-appears-poised-conduct-nuclear-115294020. Accessed on November 4, 2024.

[10] “North Korea confirms launch of ICBM in longest-ever ballistic missile test,” Al Jazeera, October 30, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/30/north-korea-launches-ballistic-missile-towards-the-sea-south-korea-says. Accessed on November 4, 2024.

[11] “Law on DPRK’s Policy on Nuclear Forces Promulgated,” KCNA Watch, September 9, 2022, https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1662687258-950776986/law-on-dprks-policy-on-nuclear-forces-promulgated/. Accessed on November 4, 2024.

[12] The Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) was established in 2023 to implement the Washington Declaration of 2023 between the US and South Korea. The NCG primarily seek to strengthen extended deterrence, discuss nuclear and strategic planning, and manage threats posed by the DPRK. For more details see – US Department of Defence, “Joint Press Statement on the 3rd Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) Meeting,” June 10, 2024,

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3801107/joint-press-statement-on-the-3rd-nuclear-consultative-group-ncg-meeting/. Accessed on November 4, 2024.

[13] The EDSCG is a key annual forum for the US-South Korea Alliance to discuss and coordinate security strategy and policy issues affecting the Korean Peninsula and broader Indo-Pacific. In the meeting, participants shared assessments of the DPRK’s dangerous and irresponsible behaviour, including its ongoing missile launches and continued pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programmes in violation of the relevant United Nations Security Council (UNSC)resolutions. For more details see – US Department of Defence, “United States of America-Republic of Korea Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group,” September 4, 2024,

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/article/3894971/united-states-of-america-republic-of-korea-extended-deterrence-strategy-and-con/. Accessed on November 4, 2024.

[14] “Press Statement of Spokesperson for DPRK Foreign Ministry,” KCNA Watch, November 2, 2024, https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1730547119-360845338/press-statement-of-spokesperson-for-dprk-foreign-ministry/. Accessed on November 4, 2024.

[15] Park Chan-Kyong, “South Korea’s risky ‘Kill Chain’ plans to counter North Korea nuclear threat may raise eyebrows in China,” South China Morning Post, July 27, 2022, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3186746/south-koreas-risky-kill-chain-plans-counter-north-korea-nuclear. Accessed on November 4, 2024.

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Keywords: Iran, Manned aircraft, Israel Air Strike, Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemen

Since the late 1990s, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a constantly expanding ‘shadow conflict’ for political and military supremacy in the Middle East. The Iranian regime’s self-ordained role as the defender of the Shiite community has manifested in power projection through its proxies in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas), Yemen (Houthis) and Iraq (Badr). Iran has focused on gradually building up its influence and power projection in the Levant by providing support to its proxies and constantly harassing Israel with their attacks. Israel, on the other hand, has countered Iranian power-projection efforts by sabotaging Iranian capability developments through cyber-attacks and destroying the Iranian proxies through a combination of air, ground and sea-borne operations at regular intervals.

Sequence of Events

The latest Israel-Hamas Conflict has now been raging for more than one year (since October 07, 2023) and has resulted in Israel fighting on multiple fronts: with Hamas in Gaza, with Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the Houthis in Yemen, with the Iranian backed and funded forces in Syria, with Badr organisation in Iraq. Additionally, Israel has also had to withstand a direct confrontation with Iran for the first time ever with a couple of Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks. On October 07, 2023, Hamas totally surprised the Israelis with a highly coordinated, savage and lethal attack on southern Israeli cities and military bases. In this attack, Hamas looted and killed approximately 1,200 Israeli soldiers and civilians. Hamas also took approximately 250 Israeli hostages, of whom approximately 100 are still in Hamas captivity. Israel responded by declaring war on Hamas and launching a massive air and ground offensive into Gaza, which has still not been able to achieve its planned objectives of neutralising Hamas and freeing the hostages.

To express solidarity with Hamas, the Iranian-backed proxies—the Houthis in Yemen —have carried out several attacks on merchant ships linked to Israel and Western nations in the Red Sea, significantly impacting the international maritime trade between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal. Also, Hezbollah from Lebanon has been continuously firing rockets at cities in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, forcing Israeli citizens to take refuge in bunkers. On April 01, 2024, an Israeli air strike on the Iranian Consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, resulted in the death of several Iranian officers including an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Brig Gen Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy.^[1] Iran retaliated approximately two weeks later with a coordinated barrage of approximately 120 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles and 170 drones on April 13, 2024, which resulted in minor damage to Nevatim Air Base.^[2] This was the first time that the Iranians had involved themselves and had fired missiles from Iranian territory into Israel. Israel retaliated with a limited drone and missile attack on Iran on April 18, 2024, which resulted in the destruction of an air defence radar site near an Iranian airbase in Isfahan province. However, the Israelis did not publicly acknowledge this attack. This direct exchange of fire between Iran and Israel in April 2024, the first of its kind, was a clear escalatory step in the Middle East conflict and served as a portent of the worsening situation and expansion of the conflict.

On July 31, 2024, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in Teheran while attending the inauguration of the newly elected Iranian President, Masood Pezeshkian. Iran and Hamas attributed the assassination to the Israelis, which occurred just hours after Israel had targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut. Subsequently, on September 17 and 18, 2024, the Israelis turned their attention to Hezbollah in Lebanon and succeeded in targeting Hezbollah operatives by carrying out multiple explosions of their handheld communication devices (pagers and walkie-talkie sets), which resulted in the death of at least 32 personnel and injuries to approximately 3,500 Hezbollah operatives. On September 23, 2024, Israel launched more than 650 air strikes on Lebanon and achieved significant successes against the Hezbollah operatives. On September 27, 2024, the Israelis were also successful in killing the Hezbollah commander, Hassan Nasrallah and other senior commanders of Hezbollah in a coordinated air strike using 85 “bunker buster” bombs on the Hezbollah underground headquarters in Beirut. The Israelis also launched a ground operation into southern Lebanon with the aim of destroying Hezbollah infrastructure and their forces that had been continuously targeting Israeli cities in northern Israel since the October 07, 2023, Hamas attack. On October 01, 2024, the Iranians retaliated by firing approximately 180 ballistic missiles, including hypersonic missiles, at military bases in Israel in response to Israeli assassinations of top Hamas, Hezbollah and IRGC leaders, causing only minimal damage and a few injuries. This was the second direct Iranian attack on the Israelis and represented another step on the escalatory ladder. The Israeli air strike on military targets in Iran on October 26, 2024, was in retaliation to the Iranian ballistic missile attack on October 01, 2024.

Operation Days of Repentance

Israel’s avowed and much-awaited retaliation to the Iranian ballistic missile barrage on October 01, 2024, came in the form of three successive packages of aerial strikes in the early morning hours of October 26, 2024, called the ‘Operation Days of Repentance’. This was the first time that Israel acknowledged directly striking Iran, bringing the ‘shadow conflict’ out in the open and crossing another threshold in the escalatory ladder. More than 100 Israeli aircraft consisting of F-35 stealth fighters, F-16 multirole fighters and F-15 fighter bombers, along with aerial refuelling tankers, surveillance and command-and-control aircraft, utilised precise intelligence to carry out coordinated precision strikes in three waves of 25 to 35 aircraft each.^[3] Certain drones were also used as part of the packages. The aircraft flew approximately 1,000 miles on each side, taking a tactical route through Syria and Iraq to target 20 odd dispersed Iranian military sites in key IRGC centres of gravity around Tehran, Esfahan, Shiraz and Karaj.^[4] All the Israeli aircraft landed back safely in Israel without any damages. It is alleged that the Israeli aircraft did not enter Iranian air space and launched their precision long-range weapons from Iraqi air space. Most probably, the weapons that were used were the ‘Rampage’ long-range, supersonic air-to-ground precision strike missile and the ‘Rocks’ next-generation extended stand-off air-to-surface missile.

Claims and Counterclaims

The Israelis claim to have struck Iranian air defences, missile and drone production facilities in central and western Iran. In order to prevent further escalation, the Israelis purposefully avoided attacking the Iranian oil refining or production facilities or the Iranian nuclear facilities. After the air strikes, the Israelis stated that their response was strictly aimed at proportionality and deterrence, not escalation. The Russian air defence S-300 surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites at the Abadan oil refinery and the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex were targeted by the Israelis. The missile development and drone facilities operated by the IRGC at Khojir and Parchin (in and around Tehran) were also struck and the missile testing facility at Shahroud was also targeted.

Lebanon The Israelis claim that these attacks have significantly impaired Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles as they have struck at least 12 planetary mixers used for making solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles. The targets at Parchin also included facilities which were previously being used for Iran’s research into nuclear weapons development before it was suspended. The Israeli precise targeting of the Iranian most capable air defence assets like the S-300 in the first wave cleared the way for the subsequent two waves to target specific Iranian strategic sites. The Iranians, however, deny the claims of the Israelis, stating that the attacks were successfully countered and that there was only “limited damage” at certain locations. They also confirmed that four soldiers and one civilian had died in the air strikes. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, initially gave a measured response, saying the strikes should “neither be exaggerated nor downplayed”. However, subsequently, the Iranian state media released a video of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement, which said, ‘The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and to the resistance front’. The Iranian foreign ministry described the Israeli attack as a violation of international law and emphasised that Iran reserved the right to defend itself and respond to the Israeli aggression in a manner of its choosing. If Iran decides to respond to the Israeli air strikes, it would signal another threshold in the escalatory ladder, and in all probability, the response would be another concentrated barrage of surface-to-surface missiles and drones to saturate the Israeli air defence systems rather than a coordinated fighter strike.

Lessons learnt

The Israeli air strikes on October 26, 2024, have reasserted the Israeli Air Force’s air superiority and power projection capabilities in the Middle East. The claimed successes of the Israeli Air Force—the direct targeting of the IRGC facilities in Iranian territory and exposing the vulnerabilities of the Iranian air defence system—reemphasise their professionalism and offensive capabilities. Through these air strikes, the Israelis have also cautioned the Iranians that any further aggression would invite additional strikes, if required, on strategic Iranian targets and could incur a crippling cost on Iranian military, economic and nuclear capabilities. The Israeli attack on only military targets clearly indicated a desire to prevent further escalation. This is because the Israelis want to remain focused on further degradation and elimination of the Iranian proxies: Hamas and Hezbollah. The Israelis feel that any further escalation with Iran would only undermine their ability to further decimate Hezbollah and Hamas.

The ‘Operation Days of Repentance’ was the most serious and extensive aerial operation inside Iran since the Iran-Iraq War, which ended in 1988. The air strikes totally exposed the vulnerabilities of the Iranian air defence system, which the Israelis targeted in the first wave of the air strikes. The Israelis thereafter had full freedom of operation for nearly four-hour-long three strike packages over Iran. The air strikes also emphatically conveyed the message that attacks against Iranian oil refineries, production sites, or even against Iranian nuclear facilities could be executed with similar success in future.

The air strikes also resolutely[5] reinforced the primacy of the fighter aircraft as an offensive instrument of precision targeting and power projection. The fairly widespread successes of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), loitering munitions, First-Person View (FPV) drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas conflict had many defence experts prophesying the death knell of manned fighters and an expeditious induction of UAS and ballistic missiles into all air forces. The Israeli air strikes of October 26, 2024, have proven that fighters are, without doubt, the most suited aerial platforms for carrying out coordinated strikes on multiple targets. The resounding lesson that emerges is that UAS would be best for complementing manned aircraft, rather than replacing them in future air campaigns.

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Notes:

^[1] Dr Haid Haid, “The strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria could be the spark that ignites the Middle East,” Chatham House, July 12, 2024, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/04/strike-irans-consulate-syria-could-be-spark-ignites-middle-east. Accessed on November 01, 2024.

^[2] “Iran attacks Israel with over 300 drones, missiles: What you need to know,” Al Jazeera, April 14, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/14/iran-attacks-israel-with-over-300-drones-missiles-what-you-need-to-know. Accessed on November 02, 2024.

^[3] Matthew Savill and Dr Burcu Ozcelik, “Operation Days of Repentance: The Impact of Israel’s Strikes on Iran”, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), October 28, 2024, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/operation-days-repentance-impact-israels-strikes-iran#:~:text=Operation%20Days%20of%20Repentance%3A%20The%20Impact%20of%20Israel’s%20Strikes%20on%20Iran,-Matthew%20Savill%20and&text=Israel’s%20recent%20strikes%20on%20Iran’s,of%20its%20regional%20deterrence%20strategy.  Accessed on 02 November, 2024.

^[4] Jonathan Ruhe, “Israel’s Iran Strike Threads a Tight Strategic Needle,” JINSA, October 27, 2024, https://jinsa.org/jinsa_report/israels-iran-strike-threads-a-tight-strategic-needle/. Accessed on November 03, 2024.

[5] Jon Gambrell, “Iran’s supreme leader threatens Israel and US with ‘a crushing response’ over Israeli attack”, AP, November 03, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/iran-khamenei-israel-hamas-lebanon-war-30385c3a17d1fca9415eb37db86dc9c5. Accessed on November 04, 2024.

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Keywords: India, ASEAN, Security, Indo-Pacific

With increased commercial and investment flows, friend-shoring, and people-to-people interactions, ASEAN-India relations have only strengthened. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) level has been reached in the relationship between ASEAN and India. The 21st ASEAN-India Summit was held on October 10 in Vientiane, Laos.^[1] This year’s summit holds more pertinence as the year 2024 also marks a decade of India’s Act-East Policy.

At the India-ASEAN Leaders’ Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi flagged “respect” for “each other’s national integrity and sovereignty” while announcing a 10-point plan and emphasising the importance of communication and collaboration between India and ASEAN during a time of conflict and tension in many parts of the world.^[2]

The 10-point plan by PM Modi also includes recognising 2025 as the ASEAN-India Year of Tourism, for which India will provide USD 5 million to cooperative endeavours, celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Act East Policy, establish a regular ASEAN-India Cyber Policy Dialogue mechanism to improve cyber and digital resilience among other aspects such as providing additional scholarships for ASEAN students in Indian Agricultural Universities.

The goal of India’s Act East policy is to access the ASEAN markets, which are seen as youthful, vibrant, and dynamic. Indian businesses have already increased their footprint in infrastructure, IT, and healthcare industries. Southeast Asian nations benefit from these collaborations by diversifying their supply networks. In the event of worldwide interruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic, this would be beneficial. Additionally, India receives significant investment from ASEAN nations, particularly Singapore.

PM Modi examined the relationship and mapped out its future course with the ASEAN grouping’s leaders. Given that connectivity is a key component of India’s engagement with ASEAN, the country has good reason to stress the significance of resilience and connectivity. This is due to India’s desire to gain influence over the diaspora in ASEAN nations, which account for up to 20 per cent of the global Indian diaspora. By the end of 2024, India hopes to have direct flight connectivity with two more ASEAN nations in addition to the present seven ASEAN countries. ASEAN is one of India’s top investment and trading partners.

Additionally, India and ASEAN decided to work together on emerging technologies including Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, Internet of Things (IoT), Robotics, Quantum Computing, 6-G, establishment and bolstering of the start-up ecosystem with particular emphasis on digital connectivity and financial technology. They also released a joint declaration on “advancing digital transformation,” which addressed a number of topics, including cybersecurity, fintech, and digital public infrastructure. According to Modi, India’s “trade with the ASEAN region has nearly doubled, surpassing USD 130 billion” during the past ten years.^[3]

India also plays a significant role in addressing regional concerns for the common good within the framework of the East Asia Summit (EAS). PM Modi’s visit demonstrated how India’s Act East Policy is mirrored by ASEAN member nations. It emphasised New Delhi’s collaboration with partners and friends who have a shared outlook on the Indo-Pacific area. With its vision for the SAGAR project, which stands for Security and Growth for All in the Region, India has made East and Southeast Asia a priority.

Concluding Remarks

India’s Act East Policy celebrated its 10th anniversary this year. Stronger people-to-people ties have given way to strong collaboration in commerce and investment, defence and security, and connectivity, including in fintech, heritage conservation, and capacity-building over the past decade. Important anniversaries of the founding of India’s diplomatic ties with a number of nations in the region were also celebrated in 2024: the 75th anniversary with Indonesia, the 75th anniversary with the Philippines, the 60th anniversary with Singapore, and the 40^th anniversary with Brunei.

PM Modi proclaimed that the 21st century is the Asian Century for India and the ASEAN region, highlighting the revolutionary effects of India’s Act East Policy on relations with Southeast Asian countries over the previous ten years. In addition to being peace-loving nations, India and ASEAN respect each other’s national integrity and sovereignty and are dedicated to a bright future for the next generation. They are also neighbours, fellow members of the Global South, and the fastest-growing region of the globe. In the face of international tensions, he emphasised the value of the partnership between India and ASEAN.

The need to preserve marine safety and security was reiterated by ASEAN and India. Exercise Malabar 24, which involved the fleets of India, the United States, Japan, and Australia (the Quad), was in progress in Vishakhapatnam at the time of the meeting. The exercise has repercussions for the Indo-Pacific region and is strategically significant in its own right. Modi also underlined that important sea lanes utilised for international trade are safeguarded by the Indian Navy. His idea of a safe and prosperous trading partnership with Southeast Asia aligns with his proposal for India to take on a larger role in regional security as a check on China.

On the fringes of the summit, PM Modi also held a number of bilateral meetings with foreign leaders, concentrating on strengthening cross-sector cooperation. Additionally, PM Modi had a productive conversation with Shigeru Ishiba, his recently appointed Japanese counterpart.^[4] The leaders reiterated their pledges to further fortify the India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership by means of increased collaboration in a variety of fields, such as infrastructure development, trade and investment, defence and security, semiconductors, skill development, culture, and people-to-people interactions.

All things considered, it turns out that PM Modi was quite successful in his diplomatic efforts to engage his counterparts on the sidelines, strengthening bilateral ties, and interacting with the leaders of the ASEAN bloc to further the interests of the entire region while taking into account India’s contribution to regional peace and stability. PM Modi made the case at the summit for a collaborative strategy to address regional concerns, including safety and marine security, to uphold and respect international law, and to strive toward a rules-based global order. Additionally, this improves India’s reputation internationally.

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Notes

[1] Shubhajit Roy, “ASEAN Summit 2024: PM Modi unveils 10-point plan to strengthen India-ASEAN relations,” Indian Express, October 11, 2024, https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-asean-ties-key-in-times-of-conflict-pm-modi-9614214/. Accessed on October 24, 2024.

[2] Ibid.

[3] “21st century is the “Asian Century,” a century for India and ASEAN countries: PM Modi at ASEAN-India Summit”, New Delhi Times, October 11, 2024, https://www.newdelhitimes.com/21st-century-is-the-asian-century-a-century-for-india-and-asean-countries-pm-modi-at-asean-india-summit/. Accessed on October 24, 2024.

[4] Prapti Upadhayay, Ed., “PM Modi holds key talks with counterparts from Japan, New Zealand on sidelines of ASEAN-India Summit”, WION News, October 10, 2024, https://www.wionews.com/india-news/pm-modi-holds-key-talks-with-counterparts-from-japan-new-zealand-on-sidelines-of-asean-india-summit-766437. Accessed on October 24, 2024.

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