Keywords: India-Maldives ties, Maldives elections, Male’s dilemma, India’s options

On October 1, 2023, India’s South Asian maritime neighbour, the Maldives, elected its new president, Dr. Mohamed Muizzu. He is the fourth Head of the State since Male made the transition to multiparty democracy in 2008. Dr. Muizzu belongs to the People’s National Congress (PNC) and was the erstwhile opposition leader in alliance with the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM).[1] The President-elect will replace the incumbent, Ibrahim Mohammed Solih of the ruling Maldives Democratic Party (MDP), on November 17, 2023. Any change of government in India’s neighbourhood is of particular relevance and importance for New Delhi, both due to the historical past and geographical realities and the present-day encroaching of strategic space by China in India’s neighbourhood, both for development and strategic purposes. The pro-Indian stance of the incumbent Solih administration and the pro-China policy of the Yameen administration (2013-2018) have made the India-Maldives ties appear like a pendulum oscillating from pro-India to anti-India. This regimental change blurred the picture of the relationship. The New Delhi–Male ties need to be understood beyond the ballot and change in governments in Majlis, especially at a time when there is a brouhaha across the circles and community that the coming of Dr. Muizzu is seen as a setback for Indian diplomacy in the island nation.

Flip-flop between India and China

India’s role in the archipelago is not two or three elections old. In fact, New Delhi was one of the first countries to recognise Maldives as an independent country in 1965 and opened its embassy in the 1980s, as compared to China, which opened its mission in 2011. China’s role, both diplomatically and developmentally, got a push under the Yameen government, which signed a Free Trade Agreement with Beijing, entered into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), leased islands, and allowed Beijing to play an active role economically and diplomatically in the country. Of course, Maldives needs development, but this should not come at the cost of unsustainable debts. In relative terms, after Angola and Djibouti, Maldives is the third highest debtor to China. The small island nation owes a sum that is almost equal to 30 per cent of its gross national income.[2] Most of this comes from the Yameen administration when the government was dancing to the tune of the Chinese diktats.

Compared to China, which infringes upon New Delhi’s interests by undertaking gigantic infrastructure projects, India’s role in Maldives is much deeper, and cooperation is wider. Ranging from diplomacy and capability building, information dominance, military cooperation, and economic engagement, India has played a pivotal role in the development of the Maldives. New Delhi’s role is significant in developing high-impact community development projects, surveillance of the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), training the Maldivian defence forces, and striking institutional engagements. As the Maldivian foreign minister Abdulla Shahid proclaimed in one of his addresses during his recent visit to New Delhi, India always responds to Male’s emergency bugle.[3] In fact, Maldives was one of the many countries that congratulated India for its successful Chandrayaan landing. This achievement will advance the cause of scientific and human progress, tweeted President Solih.[4]

Global Spotlight and Male’s Dilemma

The headlines that particularly captured global attention with the newly elected President Muizzu were his remarks about the removal of the foreign military from Maldives.[5] This action has been picked up very quickly by the strategic community as being anti-India and pro-China. Apparently, India is the only country whose forces are stationed in Maldives to operate the two light combat helicopters, Dhruva and a Dornier aircraft. These aircraft have been used for surveillance of the EEZ and to address medical emergencies across the islands and have saved several lives over the years. On this issue, the Indian side very optimistically mentioned its engagement with the new administration in Maldives on all such issues. It must be noticed that despite Muizzu joining the anti-India campaign, he mentioned having a balanced relationship between India and China.[6] This puts the ball in Male’s court, and walking a tightrope between India and China will be a necessity for any leader who comes to power.

India’s Options

Located to the west of the southern tip of India, the archipelago of Maldives is significant for India from geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geostrategic factors. India has been an all-weather friend of Maldives despite the COVID-19, Ukraine war, and global economic slowdown. New Delhi continues to be the largest development partner of Male.[7]

With the rising tension between the US and China and between India and China in the Indian Ocean, Maldives will remain on the cusp of both opportunities and challenges. The changing geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape in the Indian Ocean is further drawing other powers like Japan, the United Kingdom, Russia, and France to assert their influence more actively. This puts Maldives in the right set of circumstances to internationalise its partnership with regional and distant powers.

At the same time, it will test Male’s balancing act and its ability to manage ties with major regional actors. Concomitantly, in any of the emerging matrixes, India, being a residential and a proximate power, is likely to be impacted significantly. The push and pull by the major powers for strategic purposes necessitates that New Delhi enjoy a comfortable juncture with any government in power. Enjoying support from all the political parties through backchannel diplomacy or otherwise will act as a resistance mechanism amidst the jolts of great power competition in the Maldives. Dealing with political parties across the spectrum will help in ending the cycle of pro- and anti-India policy and catapult India’s role in its neighbourhood and the larger Indian Ocean.

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Notes:

[1] “Dr Mohamed Muizzu wins Presidential elections in Maldives”, All India Radio, October 01, 2023, https://newsonair.gov.in/News?title=Dr-Mohamed-Muizzu-wins-Presidential-elections-in-Maldives&id=468671. Accessed on October 06, 2023.

[2] Katharina Buchholz, “The Countries Most In Debt To China”, Forbes, August 19, 2022, The Countries Most In Debt To China [Infographic] (forbes.com). Accessed on October 06, 2023.

[3] “Whenever we dialled international emergency number India has been first responder: Maldives Foreign Minister Shahid”, The Print, July 12, 2023, https://theprint.in/world/whenever-we-dialled-international-emergency-number-india-has-been-first-responder-maldives-foreign-minister-shahid/1666767/. Accessed on October 07, 2023.

[4] “Maldives pres congratulates India on historic moon landing”, Atoll Times, August 20, 2023, Maldives pres congratulates India on historic moon landing | Atoll Times. Accessed on October 07, 2023.

[5] “Maldives pro-China winner to eject Indian troops”, The Times of India, October 05, 2023, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/maldives-pro-china-winner-to-eject-indian-troops/articleshow/104137570.cms?from=mdr. Accessed on October 07, 2023.

[6] P.K. Balachandran, “Maldivian President Muizzu Plans To Balance India And China Ties – Analysis”, Eurasia Review, October 02, 2023, https://www.eurasiareview.com/02102023-maldivian-president-muizzu-plans-to-balance-india-and-china-ties-analysis/. Accessed on October 08, 2023.

[7] Ministry of Personnel, Public Grievances and Pensions, “Capacity building Maldivian civil servants: a new chapter in the India-Maldives relations”, Public Information Bureau, November 11, 2022, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1875361. Accessed on October 10, 2023.

The post India-Maldives Ties – Beyond the Ballot appeared first on CAPSS India.

Keywords: Japan, Australia, Defence, Air force

The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) and the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) recently conducted the exercise Bushido Guardian in September 2023 in Japan.^[1] The RAAF’s F-35A Lightning IIs travelled to Japan for the first time as a part of their biennial exercise.^[2] Exercise Bushido Guardian is a part of the evolving defence cooperation between the two nations. This bilateral air defence exercise is also the first-ever implementation of the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) between Japan and Australia.

Bilateral defence cooperation between the two nations has steadily strengthened since the Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation in 2007. The Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) used the 2015 security legislation, which allows certain types of collective self-defence to protect Australia’s military equipment during a joint drill in November 2021.^[3] The SDF had never before operated in this manner for a nation other than the United States. The RAA has strengthened the claims of ‘quasi-alliance’ for the Japan-Australia security relationship.

Japan and Australia both are Quad members of which India is a part too. India has been conducting bilateral defence exercises with Japan, Australia and the US. India and Japan conducted their inaugural air-force exercise known as Veer Guardian in January 2023 and it conducted Exercise Pitch Black with Australia. India also conducts Air defence exercise with the US which is known as Exercise Cope. This implies how Quad member countries have been conducting bilateral defence exercises regularly to increase interoperability and further attempt to counter China’s behaviour in the region. Quad Member countries also conducted navy exercises too, one such example being of Malabar Exercise.

The Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) between Japan and Australia came into effect in January 2022, and the deal possesses the potential to further minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific region.^[4] The RAA allows the militaries of both Japan and Australia to work with each other on various defence and humanitarian operations. Japan is Australia’s closest Asian partner, and both nations share an equal partnership based on mutual trust committed to the rule of law, free trade, and a free and open Indo-Pacific vision. Japan and Australia can improve their power projection capacities through the RAA. However, this accord would not significantly improve each side’s military prowess.

Australia and Japan lack the military resources necessary to maintain a protracted mission abroad. The ‘peace clause’ in Article 9 of Japan’s post-war constitution, which forbids the country from possessing offensive weapons, is one of the country’s additional obstacles. Japan and Australia are likely to concentrate on bilateral cooperation, including humanitarian aid and disaster relief, as well as joint military training exercises in the region, by streamlining logistical processes through the RAA. The agreement has made it easier for Japan and Australia to have access to the Indian Ocean, the Southwest Pacific, and Northeast Asia. In times of regional instability, such as in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, improving interoperability and access is essential for rapid power projection.

During exercise Bushido Guardian 23, the RAAF F-35As conducted training with the fourth and fifth-generation JASDF air capabilities, which also included Japan’s F-35As.^[5] The exercise focused on enhancing RAAF’s interoperability with the JASDF on the ground as well as in the air. Both nations attempted to come up with a mutual understanding of how to operate the F-35A, which would be vital for collective security in the Indo-Pacific region. The year 2019 saw the debut of Exercise Bushido Guardian in Japan, and this year’s exercise builds on the mutually beneficial relationships established during Exercises Pitch Black and Cope North recently. Exercise Bushido Guardian 2023 follows a JASDF F-35A tour to RAAF Base Tindal, the first time Japan’s F-35As have travelled outside. Cooperation through such bilateral defence exercises across the Indo-Pacific would also lead to working towards countering China’s expansionist behaviour in the region. In this exercise, six RAAF F-35As of No. 75 Squadron were deployed to the Komatsu Air Base in Japan.

The main objective of the exercise was mixed-formation air combat training and familiarisation with the continually rising number of aircraft involved. Initial sorties comprised lone aircraft doing basic one-versus-one fighter manoeuvres. Still, as the exercise has progressed, complexity has slowly grown to encompass mock ten-versus-ten Beyond Visual Range (BVR) battles.

Furthermore, the RAA attempted to streamline effective cooperation and also enabled both Japan and Australia to increase the regularity of exercises and training. The RAA is seen by Canberra and Tokyo as both a symbol of the significant advancements made in the bilateral defence partnership and as a key enabler of upcoming kinds of collaboration.

Way Forward

Due to security threats emerging through the military build-up by China, North Korea’s missile capability, and Russia, Japan has tried to reinvent itself in order to move away from a pacifist stance, which is evident in its revised national security strategy. The Japanese administration has embraced this and expressed its willingness to increase military cooperation with Australia to historic levels in the upcoming years in an exceptionally candid manner. Additionally, there is rising interest in adding new facets to the defence and security partnership, such as defence industry collaboration, essential and emerging technology research and development, and collaboration in cybersecurity, energy security, and renewable energy.

Exercise Bushido Guardian is an example of both nations working together to bolster their defence cooperation and further ensure peace in the current security environment. The necessity to strengthen collaboration in order to ensure a peaceful and prosperous region is acknowledged by both Australia and Japan. The security environment is becoming more complicated. The paradigm shifts signalled in Australia’s Defence Strategic Review in April and Japan’s National Security Strategy, as well as the two nations’ agreement on the necessity of stepping up defence cooperation with one another, are indicative of how drastically their respective strategic outlooks have changed.

There is considerable potential to strengthen Australia-Japan-US ties and create a multinational amphibious unit with a base in the Northern Territory, in addition to assisting the JSDF’s training needs. This is a logical progression given the US Marines’ entrenched presence in the Northern Territory. Coordinating with other regional partners and allies for amphibious training and initiatives like humanitarian aid and disaster response would also be advantageous. Both nations could perhaps explore creating a trilateral with India and focusing on defence exercises along with their already established trilateral mechanisms for supply-chain resilience and diversification. India should also try to make use of the F-35 Fighter jets by learning through these bilateral defence exercises. Nevertheless, such bilateral defence and military exercises should be conducted more often to see how they benefit cooperation among like-minded nations.

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Notes:

^[1] “Exercise Bushido Guardian brings Japan and Australia together”, Australian Government Defence, September 06, 2023, https://www.defence.gov.au/news-events/releases/2023-09-06/exercise-bushido-guardian-brings-japan-and-australia-together. Accessed on October 06, 2023

^[2] Daisuke Sato, “Australia deploys F-35A stealth fighter jets to Japan”, Defence Blog, September 06, 2023, https://defence-blog.com/australia-deploys-f-35a-stealth-fighter-jets-to-japan/. Accessed on October 08, 2023

^[3] Kei Koga, “Japan and Australia step up defence cooperation”, East Asia Forum, March 08, 2022, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/03/08/japan-and-australia-step-up-defence-cooperation/. Accessed on October 10, 2023

^[4] Ibid

^[5] Andrew Salerno-Garthwaite, “Japan’s F-35A’s make first international deployment”, Air Force Technology, September 07, 2023, https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/japans-f-35a-make-first-international-deployment/ Accessed on October 11, 2023

The post Exercise Bushido Guardian 23: Evolving Japan-Australia Defence Cooperation appeared first on CAPSS India.

Author: Group Captain (Dr) Swaim Prakash Singh, Senior Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies
04 October 2023

Keywords: C-295MW, tactical operations, Global Presence, Safety Record, Atmanirbharta.

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